NFL Football Pick 11-29-09

Looking to make it 17 straight football winners with this NFL pick for 11-29-09:

#205 Indianapolis Colts at #206 Houston Texans – 1:00 p.m. ET

NFL Game of the Week: OVER 47

I’m not much of a totals player, but every now and then an opportunity presents itself that I just can’t pass up. This line opened at 49 and is now down to 47.5 and 47 depending where you look. Much of this has to do with the Colts not putting up a ton of points lately. Indy has scored 20 points or less in three of their last four games. Houston is coming off back-to-back 17-point offensive performances. Sprinkle in the fact that these two teams met just a few weeks ago with a final score of 20-17, and it’s no wonder people are betting the under. I think that’s a huge mistake.

These are two of the best passing teams in the league. The Colts are the #1-ranked passing offense, while Houston comes in at #3. They say that points come out of the passing game, and that will be very clear in this one. Peyton Manning will carve up the Houston defense and you know he’ll be focused on scoring a ton considering Indy’s lack of big points lately. The last time Indy faced another top passing offense was two weeks ago when they beat the Patriots, 35-34.

Matt Schaub should have success as well, as the Colts’ secondary is missing Bob Sanders, Marlin Jackson, and Kelvin Hayden. But the biggest loss of all is DE Dwight Freeney, who didn’t make the trip. That is a HUGE loss to the Colts’ pass rush and that will leave those young, inexperienced cornerbacks on an island trying to cover Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, and company. Let’s not forget RB Steve Slaton, who is a great receiver with top speed. Houston will try to get him in space, as he is a TD waiting to happen.

There were quite a few points left off the scoreboard in that 20-17 meeting a few weeks ago, so don’t let that low total fool you. Up until that game, these two teams had gone OVER the total in EIGHT straight meetings. They have gone OVER the total in their last four meetings in Houston, and check out these final score totals: 58, 51, 54, and 58. I see this game also falling into that 51-58 area. Take the OVER as my NFL Game of the Week play.

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College Football Pick 11-28-09

My only college football pick for 11-28-09 is:

Georgia at Georgia Tech – 8:00 p.m. ET on ABC

College Football Game of the Week: #169 Georgia +7.5

 Great spot to back the Bulldogs. Many people saw Georgia get upset on their home field last Saturday night against Kentucky. The Bulldogs lost 34-27 as a 10-point home favorite, but they actually outgained the Wildcats by 227 yards! Yes, Georgia is just 6-5 on the season, while Tech is 10-1 and ranked 7th in the BCS rankings. But being in the SEC means you play a BRUTAL schedule and that pays dividends in this non-conference rivalry game.

Georgia had dominated this series, winning seven straight until Tech pulled the 45-42 upset last season. I’m sure Tech’s 10-1 record has Georgia’s attention, but so does last week’s home loss AND last season’s upset loss to Tech. Georgia is 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Atlanta. Tech is 0-3 ATS off a SU win of 35 or more points, and 2-7 ATS when playing off a bye. Road teams are 7-4 SU and 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series.

The Bulldogs will give Tech everything they can handle, and an upset is very possible. This game goes right down to the wire, so I’ll take the points with Georgia as my College Football Game of the Week.

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NBA Pick 11-27-09

My second of two NBA basketball picks for 11-27-09 is:

NBA – Milwaukee Bucks at Oklahoma City Thunder – 9:35 p.m. ET on ESPN

Bet: #709 Milwaukee Bucks +5

 Good spot to go against OKC. OKC is coming off a huge 10-point upset win as an 8-point dog at Utah. The Thunder have covered the spread by double digits four other times this season and they failed to cover the spread in their next game each time. And this is the perfect letdown spot. Not only because they’re coming off such a huge upset road win, but also because they have a same-season revenge game against Houston up next. Milwaukee is coming off a 3-point OT loss at New Orleans two nights ago. The Bucks shot just 39.6% from the field in that contest, but I expect a bounce-back tonight against an OKC team in a bad situational spot. Take the points with Milwaukee.

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NBA Basketball Pick 11-27-09

I have two NBA picks for 11-27-09. The first one is:

NBA – San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets – 8:35 p.m. ET

Bet: #716 Houston Rockets +1

 Houston has alternated wins and losses this entire month, so you know what’s next after losing to Dallas. Seriously though, it’s not that pattern that has me on Houston, although I do find it interesting. The Rockets came off a 3-day layoff and got pounded by 31 points at home at the hands of state-rival Dallas. But Houston hasn’t performed well with long rest this season, so it wasn’t a complete surprise to me. The Mavs shot a ridiculous 65.5% from the floor in that game, so the blowout was inevitable. Houston has two other double-digit ATS losses this season. They won and covered both games that followed, including an upset win over the Lakers in LA. The Spurs have played well in recent games, but those were home games. San Antonio is 0-4 on the road this season, shooting just 41.8% in those contests. The Rockets are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. I have to back the Rockets at home off an embarrassing home loss, and playing against an 0-4 road team. This is Houston’s chance to erase the memory of an embarrassing home loss to one state rival by beating another. I expect them to respond. Take Houston.

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NFL Pick 11-26-09

Happy Thanksgiving!  My NFL Pick for 11-26-09 is:

Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys – 4:15 p.m. ET on CBS

Thanksgiving Day Game of the Year: Dallas Cowboys -13.5

 Yes, I’m a Cowboys fan. Always have been. Always will be. But this is definitely not a “homer pick.” I would not put my 14-0 football streak or 7-0 GOY record in 2009 on the line with a “homer pick.” I’ve only bet two Dallas games this season. One was an early season teaser that won. The second time was when they hammered Atlanta 37-21 a few weeks ago. So I know the ebb and flow of this Cowboys team very well. This is definitely the time to back them again.

Most people underestimate how HUGE of an edge the Cowboys have by playing this annual Thanksgiving Day home game. Just think about the logistics. Both teams played on Sunday. Dallas played at home, so there is no travel issue for them. Oakland, on the other hand, played at home on Sunday. So they have to travel to Arlington, Texas on a super-short week. That in itself is a HUGE edge for the Cowboys.

This game could not set up any better for us. The Cowboys are coming off two horrible performances. Two weeks ago, they managed a late TD in a 17-7 loss at Green Bay. This past Sunday, Dallas scores another late TD to escape with an ugly 7-6 home win over the Redskins. Now they’re being asked to cover a 2 TD spread against the Raiders, who are coming off a huge upset home win over the previously 7-2 Bengals. As a result, the opening line of Dallas -14 has been bet down to 13.5 in some books. I strongly recommend betting this right now at 13.5, given that 14 is such a key number in football.

Let’s not forget that the Cowboys’ loss at Green Bay was following a huge emotional revenge win at Philadelphia, making that game an extremely tough letdown spot for Dallas. And the Packers were coming off an embarrassing 10-point loss at lowly Tampa Bay, making the Dallas game a huge emotional bounce-back spot for the Packers. Also, the Raiders upset of the Bengals wasn’t actually that big of a surprise to me, given that the Bengals were coming off a huge emotional win at Pittsburgh in a game that gave them the AFC North lead.

Now we have the Raiders coming into Texas on a super-short week and coming off a huge emotional upset victory. This is a classic letdown spot for the Raiders. Remember Oakland’s shocking 13-9 upset home win over the Eagles? Remember what happened next? The Raiders went on the road and were absolutely destroyed by the Jets, 38-0. The Cowboys are a step up in class from the Jets. Just look at Dallas’ other home games this season and you’ll see wins by 21 over Seattle, 16 over Atlanta and 14 over Carolina. So having seen that, do you really think Dallas won’t beat the Raiders at home by at least 14?

The only other time Dallas put up back-to-back stinkers this season was when they blew a fourth-quarter lead and lost in Denver, then followed that up by needing OT to escape with a win at lowly Kansas City. What happened next? They came home and hammered a pretty good Atlanta team, 37-21. As I mentioned earlier, I was on Dallas in that game and I’ll be on them in this one. I just know this team so well.

Oakland is 30th in the league in stopping the run, allowing 157.7 rushing yards per game. Dallas is #8 in the league in rushing offense, averaging 132.3 rushing yards per game. HUGE edge there for Dallas. Dallas will pound the ball at the Oakland front, which will wear down in the fourth quarter (maybe even earlier due to the short week). That success on the ground will also open things up in the passing game, especially play-action passes.

Dallas has a huge edge in talent. Sprinkle in the scheduling dynamics and each team’s emotional state after this past Sunday’s results, and we have the ingredients for a blowout. I’m calling it a 21-point win for the Cowboys. Take Dallas as my Annual Thanksgiving Day Game of the Year.

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