NBA Basketball Picks 11-25-09

My NBA pick for 11-25-09 is:

Miami Heat at Orlando Magic – 7:35 p.m. ET on ESPN

Bet: #708 Orlando Magic -9.5

 I love when an NBA team with a winning record is installed as a big dog. The public almost always backs the big dog thinking, “Hey, they have a winning record, so they should be able to cover this big number.” That’s exactly what the books want you to think. This same strategy was in effect two nights ago when we backed the Spurs -9 at home against the then 8-3 Bucks. Now we have 8-5 Miami visiting state-rival Orlando as a near double-digit dog. The public has once again chosen to back the big dog. And once again, we’ll back the home favorite.

Don’t let Miami’s 8-5 record fool you. They’re not as good as that record would have you believe. Their only wins in their last six games were by 1 point at home against the Hornets (they were favored by 10), and a 1-point home win over still-winless New Jersey. Orlando is one of the absolute best teams in the league and this team is DEEP. Dwight Howard is an absolute matchup nightmare for the Heat. Dwyane Wade always gets his points in this rivalry, averaging 30.7 ppg in his career and 36.5 ppg in his last eight games against the Magic. But it doesn’t matter. Orlando has won 12 of the last 13 in this series and they’ve won AND covered each of the last six meetings in Orlando, winning by an average of 21 points. The Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a .600 or better team, and 2-10-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Take Orlando.

Visit bullseye-sports.com for the most powerful plays from a proven long-term winning handicapper. You can also sign up to receive free NBA picks on the website.

NBA Basketball Pick 11-23-09

My NBA basketball pick for 11-23-09 is:

Milwaukee Bucks at San Antonio Spurs – 8:35 p.m. ET

Bet: #704 San Antonio Spurs -9

 At first glance, this line looks a bit high. We have the 8-3 Bucks visiting the 5-6 Spurs minus Manu Ginobili and we have a 9-point spread. That alone will have many squares lining up to back the Bucks. But there are a few reasons I like the Spurs tonight. Before I get into the game itself, I have to say that I love the reverse line movement here. At the time I’m writing this, my sources show 58% of the bets on the Bucks, yet the line has moved to 9.5 at some books.

The Spurs have played much better at home (5-2 SU & ATS) than on the road (0-4 SU & ATS). If you look at how Milwaukee plays on the road compared to how the Spurs play at home, we see the Spurs have nice edges in FG %, 3-point %, FT %, and rebound margin. This is also the third game in four days for the Bucks and the loss of center Andrew Bogut to injury will hurt the Bucks in this one. The Spurs are playing with double revenge since the Bucks swept both meetings last season. Richard Jefferson played for Milwaukee last season and that “inside information” he can provide to the Spurs coaching staff and his teammates can only help. I see a Spurs win by 15. Lay the wood with San Antonio.

Visit bullseye-sports.com for the most powerful plays from a proven long-term winning handicapper. You can also sign up to receive free NBA picks on the website.

NFL Football Pick 11-22-09

One of my NFL football picks for 11-22-09 is:

New York Jets at New England Patriots – 4:15 p.m. ET

NFL Favorite of the Month: #428 New England Patriots -10.5

 I am expecting an absolute BLOWOUT in this matchup. These two teams met in the Meadowlands back in Week 2, with the Jets holding the Patriots without a TD in a 16-9 win. A lot has changed since then. That Week 2 contest was only Tom Brady’s second game back from missing basically a whole season with a knee injury. Brady was visibly rusty back then, which was to be expected. But Brady has since regained his form, having passed for more than 300 yards in four straight games while throwing 13 touchdown passes.

The Jets will be without run-stuffing DT Kris Jenkins this time around and you know Bill Belichick studied the film from that Week 2 loss and will have a gameplan in place to slow the Jets pass rush. The Jets have lost five of their last six games, with their only win coming against lowly Oakland. Their slide continues in this one, as rookie QB Mark Sanchez makes his first start in Foxboro. The Jets own the NFL’s 27th-ranked passing offense and even their top-ranked rushing attack has been held under four yards per carry the last two weeks. Expect New England to commit to stopping the run, build a big lead with Brady & his weapons, then pin their ears back & get after Sanchez.

The Patriots will win the turnover battle thanks to the rookie QB making some mistakes. That just contributes to the beatdown. A couple things are very clear to me. First, the Patriots defense should be plenty motivated, as they should take Belichick’s decision to go for it on fourth down in Indianapolis last Sunday night as a lack of trust in them. Second, Belichick has run up the score on plenty of teams and you know he will not let up in this one. Not just because of the revenge factor, but also because he wants people to forget about his decision to go for it on fourth down last Sunday night in Indianapolis. Lay the lumber with New England.

Visit bullseye-sports.com for the most powerful plays from a proven long-term winning handicapper. You can also sign up to receive free NFL football picks on the website.

NFL Pick 11-22-09

I have two NFL picks today. The first one is:

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars – 1:00 p.m. ET

Bet: #409 Buffalo Bills +8.5

 This is a classic “buy low” spot on the Bills. Buffalo has gotten blown out in back-to-back games — 31-10 vs. Houston and 41-17 at Tennessee. As a result, Dick Jauron was fired and defensive coordinator Perry Fewell takes over as interim head coach. Fewell starts by benching QB Trent Edwards and naming Ryan Fitzpatrick his starting QB. I think both moves (Fewell & Fitzpatrick) add a spark to this team, as it shows that nobody’s job is safe.

The Jags are coming off an emotional come-from-behind win at the Jets last week. The Jaguars have shown that they will play to the level of their competition. Several weeks ago, they were a 9.5-point favorite here against the Rams and needed OT to escape with a 23-20 win. Two weeks ago, the Jags were 7-point chalk here against the Chiefs and held on for a 24-21 win. Bottom line: the Jags cannot be trusted as a big favorite. While the Bills are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games, the Jaguars are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games. Neither team can stop the run, but at least Buffalo’s secondary is playing well. The Jaguars have a banged-up secondary and even Fitzpatrick should have some success with weapons like Terrell Owens and Lee Evans. This is just too many points for the Jags to be laying. Take Buffalo.

Visit bullseye-sports.com for the most powerful plays from a proven long-term winning handicapper. You can also sign up to receive free NFL picks on the website.

NCAA Football Pick 11-21-09

My second and final NCAA football pick for 11-21-09 is:

Kentucky at Georgia – 7:45 p.m. ET on ESPN

Bet: #341 Kentucky +9.5

 Both teams come into this contest with 6-4 records, but only Kentucky would consider that a good season. This Georgia team is down in talent from previous years and that spells trouble for the Bulldogs tonight. Kentucky is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS on the SEC road this season, but that’s not the only reason the Wildcats have the confidence to hang tough here. This Kentucky class has covered two of three meetings with the Bulldogs, with one straight-up win mixed in. Rich Brooks’ Wildcats suffered through some injuries earlier this season, but the club is healthy now and now has some quality depth because of those early injuries. I expect Kentucky to be physical at the line of scrimmage and wear out a Georgia defense that has allowed FOUR opponents to score 37 points or more this season. An upset is quite possible. Take the points with Kentucky.

Visit bullseye-sports.com for the most powerful plays from a proven long-term winning handicapper. You can also sign up to receive free NCAA football picks on the website.

« Previous Page — Next Page »