College Football Bowl Pick 12-31-09

My only college football bowl pick for 12-31-09 is:

Chick Fil-A Bowl – Tennessee vs. Virginia Tech – 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN

Bet: #239 Tennessee +6

 This simply boils down to the fact that I think we’re getting some good value on Tennessee here. The Vols may only bring a 7-5 record into this one, but I’d be willing to bet they’d be at least a 9-3 team in the ACC. When I look at how each team did against bowl opponents this season, I see Virginia Tech at 3-4-1 ATS and +52 yards per game, and Tennessee at 5-4 ATS and +20 yards per game. Pretty similar.

Virginia Tech’s defense is very solid, ranked 14th in the nation, allowing 300.08 yards per game on 4.63 yards per play. But Tennessee’s D is every bit as good. The Vols defense is ranked 18th in the nation, allowing 308.83 yards per game on 4.71 yards per play. And the Vols accomplished that against some very tough SEC competition. Back to the VT defense: while still very good, they’re not as dominant in the trenches as they have been in years past. And Tennessee’s o-line has only allowed 12 sacks all year in the tough SEC.

Looking at the second half of each team’s season, I see the Hokies winning their last four games by double digits, but they were also favored by double digits in each contest. They were beaten by two bowl teams (North Carolina and Georgia Tech) in the two games prior. Tennessee did get spanked by Ole Miss, but they also beat bowl teams Kentucky and South Carolina. And let’s not forget that Tennessee went into Tuscaloosa and fell just short against #1 Alabama, 12-10, in a game they really should’ve won. That shows me that this Tennessee team can hang with anyone on any given day.

In fact, the one common opponent I see for these two teams is #1 Alabama. Tennessee played them on the road and lost by 2, while Virginia Tech played them on a neutral field and lost by 10. But let’s look even deeper. Tennessee actually outgained Alabama 341-256, while Virginia Tech got outgained 498-155!

Motivation is also a key factor in handicapping bowl games. I have to believe that edge goes to Tennessee. At 7-5 and with first-year coach Lane Kiffin, the Vols have to be thrilled to be playing in a primetime bowl game. I doubt the Hokies share the same enthusiasm. VT had national title aspirations coming into the season. And not only were those dreams shattered early, but they’re not even in a BCS bowl. Heck, they didn’t even land a New Year’s Day bowl invitation! This has to be a huge disappointment for Virginia Tech.

Bottom line: These two teams are SO close in talent, that the points are the only play here. It very well could come down to a FG. And I always love getting points with an SEC team playing with a motivational edge against a non-conference opponent. Grab the points with Tennessee.

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NCAA Football Bowl Pick 12-30-09

My NCAA football bowl pick for 12-30-09 is:

Holiday Bowl – Nebraska vs. Arizona – 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN

Bet: #231 Nebraska -2.5

 Note: There are a few -2.5 out there. If your outs have -3, then I suggest buying the half-point down to -2.5 if you can. Three is just such a HUGE key number in football games, so we always want to get -2.5 or +3.5 whenever possible.

Anytime I can get the most dominant player on the field and the most dominant unit on the field and only have to win by a FG, I’m almost always going to jump all over that. Such is the case in this Holiday Bowl matchup with Nebraska’s defense, led by DT Ndamukong Suh. The 6-foot-4, 300-pound defensive tackle finished fourth in the Heisman Trophy voting, took home four other prestigious awards and was a unanimous first-team All-American. Suh, leading the Huskers with 82 tackles, 12 sacks and 23 tackles for loss, put on his best performance in the Big 12 title game against Texas. Facing a barrage of double-team blocks, Suh matched a career high with 12 tackles – nine for zero or negative yards – and had 4 1/2 sacks. The guy is a game-changer all by himself.

But let’s not forget that this Huskers defense as a whole is ranked 9th in the nation in yards allowed (284.54 yards per game), 2nd in points allowed (11.23 points per game), 3rd in sacks per game (3.23), and 3rd in pass efficiency defense. In the Big 12 title game against Texas, this Huskers D allowed that potent Texas offense just 13 points and 202 total yards! To further illustrate just how impressive this Nebraska D is: They faced six bowl teams this season and held them to an average of 14 points and 254.7 total yards of offense per game!

Now I know Arizona’s defense is pretty good too, but they’re not in Nebraska’s league. A strong indicator of offensive and defensive strength is yards per point (ypp). Arizona’s D has a ypp of about 13 (not very good). Nebraska’s offense has a ypp of 13, so as bad as everyone thinks the Huskers offense is, they should have enough success to get the job done, especially with that D giving them good field position throughout the game. Arizona’s offense has a ypp of about 14, but that Nebraska D has a defensive ypp of 25! Can you say DOMINANT? Arizona QB Nick Foles has played well and so has their o-line, but they have not seen this type of pass rush this season. And Foles isn’t shifty enough to elude that Huskers pass rush.

So in a game like this, where defense should rule, it would figure that the kickers would be very important. Nebraska’s Alex Henery has made 20 of his 24 FG attempts this season (83.3%), and three of those four misses were from 50 yards and longer. So he’s basically automatic from inside 50 yards. Arizona’s Alex Zendejas (yes, another from the Zendejas family of kickers) made 17 of his 22 FG attempts this season (77.3%). That’s not bad either, but the problem is that Zendejas had two misses from 20-29 yards and two more misses from 30-39 yards. To further put this in perspective: Henery’s average miss came from 49.5 yards, while Zendejas’ average miss came from 32.6 yards! So in this game where kickers could play a very vital role, Nebraska has the clear edge.

Bottom line: We’re getting the most dominant player in the game on by far the most dominant unit in the game, and we only need to win by a FG. Lay it with Nebraska.

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College Football Bowl Pick 12-29-09

My college football bowl pick for 12-29-09 is:

Champs Sports Bowl – Wisconsin vs. Miami – 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN

Bet: #225 Wisconsin +4

 Seems like the whole world is on Miami tonight. Think about this: Miami is ranked 10 spots higher than Wisconsin and the game is being played in Florida. Not only that, but it’s pretty common knowledge that Miami has played the tougher schedule. So why did oddsmakers open with Miami as just a 1.5-point favorite?

Motivation is a big part of bowl handicapping, and I feel the edge goes to the Badgers. Normally, these student athletes like to go out of their home state to play a bowl game. But the Hurricanes have to stay in Florida. On the flip side, the kids from Madison, Wisconsin get to come to warm, sunny Florida. But that’s only half of their motivation. The Badgers were completely embarrassed by Florida State in this same bowl game last year, 42-13. Don’t think that motivates the Badgers? Check this out: “(That loss) really left a bad taste in our mouth,” defensive back Chris Maragos said. “The whole offseason we wanted to prepare and make sure that didn’t happen again. ? We put ourselves in the position to redeem ourselves.”

These teams are very evenly matched, so taking more than a FG is a very solid play. Miami does have a speed edge, but I feel Wisconsin has the size in the trenches, and that’s where games are won and lost. The Badgers are as balanced an offense as you’ll find, averaging over 200 yards on the ground AND through the air. That balance makes the dog even more appealing.

As I mentioned, Miami has a speed edge, but a couple factors favor Wisconsin. First, Miami QB Jacory Harris won’t have star left tackle Jason Fox protecting him during this game due to a knee injury that required surgery. That’s bad news considering Wisconsin is 21st in the nation in sacks, while Miami is 91st in sacks allowed.

Bottom line: I think Wisconsin is the more motivated team and I like their size in the trenches. And with that balanced offense, they’ll have Miami guessing all night. I think Wisconsin wins outright, so the points are a gift. Take Wisconsin.

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NFL Monday Night Football Pick 12-28-09

My NFL Monday Night Football Pick for 12-28-09 is:

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears – 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN

Bet: #132 Chicago Bears +8

 Do I think the Bears are the better team? Of course not, but if the better team always won and covered the spread, the books would be out of business. We just saw the 2-12 Buccaneers go into New Orleans as 14-point dogs and upset the 13-1 Saints, so anything is possible. Anytime we have a divisional home dog getting more than a TD on Monday night, we have to take a good look at that home dog. The value definitely lies with the Bears. When these two teams met in Minnesota just a few weeks ago, the Vikings were a 10-point home favorite. Allowing three points for home field advantage, it would figure that the Bears would be a four-point dog tonight. But instead, we’re getting more than a TD with Chicago. That’s A LOT of value to ignore, especially for a team playing at home with same-season revenge against a division rival on a Monday night.

Brett Favre led the Vikings to a 10-1 start by throwing 24 touchdowns and three interceptions, but the 40-year-old has had three TDs and four interceptions in the three games since. That dropoff is eerily similar to his final five games with the New York Jets last season. Favre helped that team open 8-3, but the Jets missed the playoffs by dropping four of their final five as he totaled nine interceptions and two TDs. Minnesota played their first game in wintry conditions last Sunday night and Carolina easily handled them, 26-7. The wind will be a lot stronger and the temperature a lot colder tonight in Chicago. And I have to believe that, although they have no shot at the playoffs, the Bears will be plenty motivated to: 1) avenge that 36-10 loss at Minnesota from a few weeks ago; and 2) keep the Vikings from earning a first-round bye or possibly even home-field advantage. The value clearly lies with the Bears tonight. Grab the points with Chicago.

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NFL Football Pick 12-27-09

I only have one NFL pick today. It’s my NFL Game of the Week:

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins – 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC

Bet: #130 Washington Redskins +7

 Everybody saw Dallas hand the Saints their first loss, and on their home field no less. All of a sudden, Dallas’ December woes are forgotten. Everyone also saw Washington get pummeled by the Giants on their home field Monday night, 45-12. That is why I love how this game sets up.

Coming off that HUGE win, this is exactly the kind of game in which Dallas almost always comes out and lays an egg. Wade Phillips just is NOT a motivator, and that is what is needed to keep his team focused off that huge win. Dallas had one other HUGE emotional win this year. That was when they went to Philly and beat the Eagles 20-16, which avenged their 44-6 loss in Philly in Week 17 last season that kept Dallas out of the playoffs. So how did they respond off that big win? They went to Green Bay and got beat by a more motivated Packers team, 17-7. The Redskins will definitely be motivated to erase that home embarrassment from Monday night. They usually play Dallas tough, and lost by just a point at Dallas earlier this season.

The Redskins do play hard for Jim Zorn. The Monday night game got away from them, and they were playing a hungry opponent fighting for their playoff lives. This time they’re playing what should be a flat Dallas team & they’ll make sure this one does not get out of hand. Wait as long as you can to bet this AND buy the hook to +7.5 if it doesn’t get there on its own. Take Washington as my NFL Game of the Week.

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