College Football Bowl Pick 12-26-09

My college football bowl pick for 12-26-09 is:

Emerald Bowl – (217) Boston College vs. (218) USC – 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN

Bet: UNDER 45.5

Not much needs to be said here. We have two of the top defenses in the nation facing a couple of subpar offenses in this Emerald Bowl clash. Boston College’s physical defense ranks 18th in the nation in points allowed and 23rd in yards allowed. The Eagles allowed 20 points or less in five of their last six games. The only exception was the game against UNC where the offense committed six turnovers. USC’s offense was held to 21 points or less in four of their last five games. This BC defense will really put them to the test.

On the flip side, BC’s offense is led by freshman QB David Shinskie, who is completing just 52.9% of his passes with 14 TDs and 13 INTs. The Eagles offense has faced two bowl teams on the road this season and they managed a total of just 217 yards. That’s not good news for BC, especially considering the USC defense is right behind the BC defense in points allowed per game (20.4).

I see this game ending with a total between 37 and 41. Take the UNDER.

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NBA Basketball Pick 12-25-09

Merry Christmas! My NBA basketball pick for 12-25-09 is:

Cleveland Cavaliers at Los Angeles Lakers – 5:00 p.m. ET on ABC

Bet: #506 Los Angeles Lakers -5

 The Lakers have been off since Tuesday and I’m sure they’re very much looking forward to this Christmas day matchup with LeBron and the Cavs. While the Lakers have had two days off to prepare, this will be Cleveland’s fourth road game in six days. The Lakers won both meetings last season by double digits, including a 17-point win at Staples Center. The two double-digit wins are no fluke, as LA just has so many more scoring options than the Cavs. More scoring options plus more rest equals a solid victory for the home team. Lay the points with the Lakers.

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College Football Pick 12-24-09

My college football pick for 12-24-09 is:

Hawaii Bowl – SMU vs. Nevada – 8:00 p.m. ET

Bet: #211 SMU +12.5

SMU coach June Jones returns to his old stomping grounds, as he spent nine seasons in charge of the Hawaii program. Now Jones brings his Mustangs to the island for the program’s first bowl appearance in 22 years. Motivation will definitely NOT be a problem for SMU. SMU has had problems stopping the run this season, which should mean much trouble against Nevada’s vaunted rushing attack. But Nevada has lost two-thirds of that three-headed monster, with RB Luke Lippincott out with a toe injury and RB Vai Taua ruled academically ineligible.

On the flip side, Nevada has the second-worst pass defense in the nation, which will be a problem in this one. SMU brings the nation’s 29th best passing attack into this ballgame. Freshman QB Kyle Padron has really excelled in Jones’ spread offense, winning four of his five starts while tossing 64.4% completions for 1,462 yards and 8 TDs with only 4 INTs. It should also be noted that Nevada defensive coordinator Nigel Burton resigned to become the head coach at Portland State. That leaves linebackers coach Ken Wilson to run the defense for the first time in this one.

Bottom line: Nevada is missing two-thirds of their rushing attack, and their defensive coordinator has “left the building.” That should be more than enough issues to keep SMU in this game until the very end. Jones will have his troops ready to play on his former home field. Grab the points with SMU.

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NBA Basketball Pick 12-23-09

My NBA pick for 12-23-09 is:

Oklahoma City Thunder at Phoenix Suns – 9:05 p.m. ET

Bet: #718 Phoenix Suns -9

 Just a tough spot for the Thunder tonight. Oklahoma City is coming off a hard-fought game last night at Staples Center, losing by just three points to the Lakers as 10-point road dogs. So this marks the second road game in as many nights and now they get to travel to Phoenix to take on a Suns team that will run them up and down the court for a full 48 minutes. No doubt in my mind that tired legs will be a factor for the Thunder in the second half of this game. And with Phoenix coming off their first home loss of the season in embarrassing fashion (109-91) to Cleveland, you can expect the Suns to play with a ton of energy and focus tonight. The Suns are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and the situation dictates more of the same tonight. I see a 15-point win for the Suns, so lay the points with Phoenix as my NBA Game of the Week play.

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College Basketball Pick 12-22-09

My college basketball pick for 12-22-09 is:

Missouri State at Arkansas – 8:00 p.m. ET

Bet: #539 Missouri State (pick’em)

 The oddsmakers really messed up here. I use two sets of power ratings, and both sets have Missouri State as the stronger team with AT LEAST 165 teams between them! Arkansas has already lost to Louisville by 30 on a neutral court, and to Oklahoma by 20 on the road. And both sets of power ratings have this Missouri State club rated higher than UL and OU. Arkansas already owns home losses to the likes of Morgan State, East Tennessee State, and South Alabama — all ranked WELL BELOW Missouri State. The Razorbacks do have a four-game winning streak, but they’ve been beating up on teams that, according to my rankings, are rated from 231st to 342nd out of 347 Division 1 teams.

This undefeated Missouri State team already owns an eight-point win over Tulsa, who my two sets of rankings have as the 19th and 23rd best team in Division 1. They’re coming off a ten-point road win at St. Louis, which is a team I have ranked over 100 spots better than Arkansas. Missouri State has a slight height advantage and has proved to be the better rebounding team so far this season. They also are a MUCH better free-throw shooting team, hitting 73.8% compared to just 64.8% for Arkansas. Missouri State’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency rankings are 49th and 62nd, respectively. That is much better than Arkansas, which ranks 158th and 256th in those key categories.

Bottom line: I’ve sliced and diced this game every which way, and I come up with a 10 to 14-point win for Missouri State. Getting them at a pick’em is a gift. Take Missouri State.

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