NCAA Basketball Pick 1-31-10

My NCAA basketball pick for 1-31-10 is:

Pittsburgh at South Florida – 1:00 p.m. ET

Bet: #824 South Florida +3.5

 If you just look at the school names and the spread, which many folks do, then this looks easy. At the time I’m writing this, 73% of the reported bets have come in on Pittsburgh. No surprise there. But these USF kids have been playing some improved basketball lately.

Things looked bleak when 6′10″ Augustus Gilchrist (18.8 ppg, 7.4 rpg) went down with an ankle injury, but 6′11″ Jarrid Famous has stepped in and made a name for himself. Famous is averaging 15 points and 10 rebounds in his last four games. The Bulls also have the best player on the floor in this game in guard Dominique Jones. Jones is averaging 21.4 points, 6 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game.

Doesn’t matter to me whether or not Jermaine Dixon (ankle) plays. I think he will, but he didn’t practice yesterday and it might be a smart move to rest him and make sure he’s ready for their game at West Virginia on Wednesday. Speaking of that West Virginia game on deck, that makes this game a perfect look-ahead spot for Pitt.

The Bulls play very solid defense, especially at home where they allow opponents to shoot just 38.8% from the floor. Pitt is a solid defensive team as well, but their numbers slip considerably on the road where they’re allowing opponents to shoot 45.6%. Pitt only shoots 41.8% from the floor on the road, while USF shoots 45.6% at home.

Bottom line: Oddsmakers opened Pitt as only a 2-point favorite for a reason. Sure, some of that has to do with Dixon’s status, but they also know that this is a tough spot for Pitt on the road with WVU up next, and playing a determined USF squad that plays very tough at home. Grab the points with South Florida.

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College Basketball Pick 1-30-10

My college basketball pick for 1-30-10 is:

Kansas at Kansas State – 7:00 p.m. ET

Bet: #623 Kansas -4

 I’ve been burned by going against K-State twice this season, so hopefully the third time is the charm. Many people remember the Wildcats knocking off then #1 Texas on national TV, and also getting a big conference road win at Baylor. These same people see K-State’s national ranking and will jump at the points here. I think that’s a mistake.

Texas had been playing rather poorly after they took over the #1 ranking. It sure seemed like the pressure of being #1 was getting to them. And the Wildcats were lying in wait on that Monday night at the Fred Bramlage Coliseum in Manhattan. This is a different story. Kansas is poised to take over the #1 ranking with a win in this one, and the Jayhawks will not be intimidated in this road setting. In fact, the Jayhawks are 25-1 in Manhattan since 1984 and has won 38 of 40 meetings overall since the inception of the Big 12.

Kansas has a height advantage in this one, led by 6′11″ center Cole Aldrich. That should give the Jayhawks the edge on the glass, where they own a +9.4 road rebound margin per game. And let’s not forget power forward Marcus Morris, who has averaged 19 points and 8 boards in his last five games. It should also be noted that Kansas is shooting free throws at a 77.4% clip on the road, while K-State is shooting free throws at just 64.7% at home.

The Jayhawks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as a road favorite of 6.5 points or less, and 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Manhattan. The Wildcats are just 2-5-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less.

Bottom line: Kansas State has one of the best teams they’ve ever had, but it still won’t be good enough to derail Kansas. Both teams will be highly motivated in this state rivalry game. With Kansas unphased by the atmosphere in Manhattan, I expect their superior talent to get the job done. The Jayhawks should win the battle on the glass with their size up front, and Sherron Collins and Xavier Henry can match up with Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen in the backcourt. Kansas is ranked #2 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and that impressive balance at both ends of the floor will just be too much for K-State. I see a Jayhawks win by 10, so lay it with Kansas.

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NBA Basketball Pick 1-29-10

My NBA pick for 1-29-10 is:

Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:05 p.m. ET

Bet: #814 Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5

 Love the way this game sets up. This is a rematch of a game played in Denver last month, in which the Nuggets were 9-point home winners. It appears Carmelo Anthony will be back tonight after missing Wednesday’s game at Houston with a sprained ankle. That alone will have the public lining up to play the Nuggets. If only it were that easy.

This is the second game of a short three-game road trip for Denver. They won at Houston on Wednesday without ‘Melo, and have a date in San Antonio on Sunday. The Nuggets have won five straight and nine of 10 in this series, and they’ve been favored in every one of them. They’ve also won eight straight games heading into this one. So why are they the dogs tonight?

The Thunder have dropped three straight, but the first two were on the road at Memphis & Cleveland, and their last game was their first game back at home after a four-game road trip and they ran into a Chicago buzz saw. That first home game after a road trip is always a tough spot for the hosts, but I expect the Thunder to bring the intensity tonight; Not just because it’s a revenge game, but also because it’s not too hard to get jacked up (that’s for you, jackedup339) to face a division rival that just so happens to be leading the division. The Thunder only shot 37% from the floor against the Bulls, and I expect a much better effort tonight.

From a trend perspective: The Nuggets are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games, and 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Nuggets are also 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Thunder are 7-2 ATS in the next game after a home loss this season, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.

Bottom line: We have a revenge-minded home team playing against their division leader, and coming off a bad home loss. We have a road team that has won eight straight, but only two were on the road and one of those two was against an injury-riddled team (GS). And this road team is mediocre at best away from home. I know the Thunder and their crowd will be fired up tonight and I’m sure they’ll give it everything they’ve got. Lay the small number with Oklahoma City.

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NBA Basketball Pick 1-28-10

My NBA basketball pick for 1-28-10 is:

Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks – 7:35 p.m. ET

Bet: #502 New York Knicks -3.5

 There are several reasons why the Knicks are my Basketball Best Bet of the Week. The public has lined up to back the Raptors, in large part because they’re coming off back-to-back wins over Miami and the Lakers. But those wins were both at home where Toronto is 16-6 this season. This game, however, is on the road where Toronto is just 8-16 SU and 10-14 ATS.

In that last game against Miami, Toronto shot 56.8% from the floor. I expect that number to drop significantly tonight, as the Raptors play for the second time in as many nights. The Raptors are just 2-8 ATS in their last ten games when playing without rest. So fatigue should be a factor for Toronto tonight, especially in the second half.

This is the last game of a five-game homestand for the Knicks. They’re 2-2, with the two losses coming against Dallas and the Lakers — two of the best teams in the league. Toronto is definitely not in that class, especially when on the road (see road record above). The Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.

This is also a big revenge spot for the Knicks. Toronto visited the Knicks just 13 days ago and handed them a 112-104 loss. The Raptors shot 53.4% from the floor, including 12-of-22 (54.5%) from three-point range. I really doubt they get anywhere near those percentages tonight, given how they’ve performed in these “second game of a back-to-back” situations.

Bottom line: The “smart money” is obviously on the Knicks. As I eluded to earlier, 63% of the reported bets have come in on Toronto, yet this line moved from Knicks -3 to as much as -4 at one point. So not only do we have the “wiseguys” on our side, but we have a revenge motive and what should be a fatigued road team that does not play well on the road in any circumstances. Lay it with New York as my Basketball Best Bet of the Week.

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College Basketball Pick 1-27-10

My college basketball pick for 1-27-10 is:

TCU at Colorado State – 8:00 p.m. ET

Bet: #770 Colorado State -5.5

 It didn’t take me long to determine that I did not like anything in the NBA tonight. But I had MANY strong leans on this huge college hoops card, and it took me quite a while before I decided that the Rams were the best play for tonight.

Two things I always look at when capping hoops games are rebounding and defensive efficiency. Let’s face it, shooting comes and goes, but defense is a constant. A team is either good defensively or it’s not. When I look at these two teams, I see defensive efficiency rankings of 224th for TCU and a much more respectable 118th for Colorado State.

CSU is 8-1 at home, with the only loss coming against UNLV. I’m not concerned at all with the Rams’ three-game losing streak. Two of those games were on the road, and all three were against teams ranked in the Top 50 according to the Pomeroy ratings. CSU also holds teams to 42.5% shooting at home and they have an average home rebound margin of +6.6. The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.

On the flip side, TCU is 1-6 on the road, but they did face some pretty tough competition. TCU has allowed 49.9% shooting on the road with a -.5 rebound margin. The Horned Frogs are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less.

Bottom line: TCU hasn’t proved they can hang in this role, and Colorado State should be plenty motivated to drop the hammer tonight coming off three straight losses against top competition. This big step down in class from those last three opponents is just what the doctor ordered. Lay it with Colorado State.

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