NCAA Basketball Picks 1-26-10

My NCAA basketball picks for 1-26-10 are:

Clemson at Boston College – 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2

Bet: #520 Boston College +3

 Same-season revenge spot for the Eagles, as they were defeated at Clemson earlier this month, 72-56. Clemson has only played two road games against decent competition and they lost both times — at Duke and at Georgia Tech. The Tigers have a tough home game against Maryland up next, and they could be missing guard Demontez Stitt tonight. Confidence should be high for BC, as they’re coming off a road win at Miami and a 1-point road loss at a pretty good Virginia Tech team.

Two things that stick out to me are: 1) BC is the better free-throw shooting team, which is huge in what should be a tight game; and 2) BC should own the glass tonight (+9.9 rebounds per game at home, compared to Clemson’s -.4 on the road), which is always a major plus. Put these Eagles at home on national TV (ESPN2) and give them a revenge motive, and I think we see another quality performance. This has all the makings of an upset. Take Boston College plus the points.

 

Kansas State at Baylor – 8:00 p.m. ET

Bet: #524 Baylor -2.5

 I like Baylor a lot in this matchup. Baylor will have a nice height advantage with their +6.1 effective height rating ranking 2nd in the nation. That should lead to the Bears owning the glass, which is always huge. The Bears are 10-0 SU and 3-0 ATS at home, and they alllowed their three lined opponents to shoot just 33% from the floor. That defense will be huge here.

On the flip side, Kansas State upset then #1 Texas, and then suffered a letdown loss to Okie State in their last game. The Wildcats could very well lack the necessary focus tonight with a huge home game against their state rival, #2 Kansas, up next. K-State allows 78.3 points per game and 48.3% shooting on the road, which is a far cry from Baylor’s 59.2 points per game and 34% shooting allowed at home. Take Baylor.

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NBA Basketball Picks 1-25-10

My two NBA picks for 1-25-10 were:

Atlanta Hawks at Houston Rockets – 8:35 p.m. ET

Bet: #512 Houston Rockets (pick)

 Solid situation to back the home Rockets tonight. Houston comes in off a 7-point home loss to the Bulls, and they’re 4-1 SU off a home loss this season. Houston has also covered each of the last five in this series at home. While the Rockets are 13-6 at home, the Hawks are just 10-9 on the road. Atlanta has won five of their last six games, but only one of those wins came on the road.

Atlanta escaped with a 2-point home win over Houston back in November. It’s important to note that it was only a 2-point Atlanta win despite the fact that the Hawks outshot Houston 50% to 42%. I expect the Rockets to get some payback tonight. Take Houston.

 

Charlotte Bobcats at Denver Nuggets – 9:05 p.m. ET

Bet: #516 Denver Nuggets -5.5

 This one’s pretty easy for me. 1) Charlotte is a horrible 3-16 on the road this season, while Denver is a rock-solid 20-3 at home. 2) The Nuggets will be playing with revenge from a 12-point loss at Charlotte in December. 3) The Nuggets won the last two in this series at home by double digits. 4) Carmelo Anthony is not playing tonight due to an ankle injury. I have had HUGE success over the years by backing teams playing their first game without a key player. Teams in this situation have a tendency to step up and play an inspired game. I expect the Nuggets to do the same tonight. Lay it with Denver.

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NFL Football Pick 1-24-10

My NFL football pick for 1-24-10 is:

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints – 6:40 p.m. ET on FOX

Bet: #304 New Orleans Saints -3.5

 NOTE: Buy the half-point down to -3. If you wait and can get -3, buy the half-point down to -2.5.

The last thing most people remember from last weekend’s playoff action is the Vikings absolutely pounding the Cowboys (34-3), who were the hottest team in the NFC at the time. Minnesota also pummeled Tony Romo in that game, so Minny’s pass rush really stood out. As a result, many people will line up to grab the points with Brett Favre and the Vikings. I disagree.

One big difference between the Vikings-Dallas game and this one is that the Vikes are now on the road. As much as the crowd noise helped them in the Metrodome last weekend, that same ear-splitting noise will be their enemy today in the Superdome. The Vikings were just 4-4 on the road this season, and those four wins came against Cleveland, Detroit, St. Louis, and Green Bay (who they know well). Their only road game against a playoff team who they do not know well was in Arizona, and the Cardinals pounded the Vikings, 30-17 (and the game wasn’t even that close).

The Cowboys made the Vikings pass rush look unworldly, especially after LT Flozell Adams left the game with an injury. The Williams boys and Ray Edwards will all play, but none of them are 100%. And one big difference that we should see in this one is the difference between Tony Romo and Drew Brees. Romo is much more likely to hold the ball and scramble around trying to make a play. Brees, however, has one of the quickest releases in the league and he’s excellent at finding the opening receiver before the pass rush can get to him.

Dallas had open receivers running all over the field last weekend, but Romo had no time to find them. The Saints line is intact and should give Brees enough time to get the job done. And I KNOW Saints head coach Sean Payton will do a MUCH better job than Dallas offensive coordinator Jason Garrett at making any necessary adjustments should that Vikings pass rush start to roll.

Bottom line: The public is making too much of last week’s Vikings win over Dallas. Minnesota is a mediocre road team, and the Superdome noise certainly won’t help. The Saints defense is as healthy as it’s been since early in the season, and I expect Brees and company to exploit the Minnesota secondary. Take New Orleans.

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Second NBA Basketball Pick 1-23-10

My second of two NBA picks for 1-23-10 is:

Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns – 9:05 p.m. ET

NBA Game of the Month: #518 Phoenix Suns -11.5

 I absolutely love how this game sets up. And if I had gotten a better number, I may have made this my NBA Game of the Year. But we should still have an easy winner here.

The Warriors come into this one off a blowout 32-point home win over the lowly Nets last night. The Warriors shot 52% from the floor, while the Nets managed to shoot just 35.6%. This will be the second game in as many nights and third game in four nights for these Warriors. Now that would be a fatigue issue for any team, but it is especially critical with these injury-riddled Warriors. I can’t remember an NBA team so decimated by injuries than Golden State is right now. And stepping WAY UP in class tonight, and on the road, doesn’t help matters any.

On the flip side, the Suns should be in a foul mood after getting spanked here at home by the Bulls last night, 115-104. The Suns shot just 38.5% from the floor, which is WELL below their home season average of 50%. And if last night’s embarrassment doesn’t provide enough motivation, there’s always the fact that Golden State won the last time these two squared off — 132-127 at Golden State last month.

Bottom line: The home team is the better team, playing with revenge and motivation from an embarrassing home loss the night before. And the road team is a team decimated by injuries, coming off a lopsided win, and having fatigue issues. Lay the points with Phoenix as my NBA Game of the Month.

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First NBA Basketball Pick 1-23-10

My first of two NBA picks for 1-23-10 is:

Orlando Magic at Charlotte Bobcats – 7:05 p.m. ET

Bet: #502 Charlotte Bobcats +1

 I went with Charlotte on Wednesday when they crushed Miami by 39 points. I was damn close to going against them last night in Atlanta when they lost by 14. It’s not hard to read this Charlotte team. They play very well at home where they’re 18-4 SU and 14-8 ATS. The Bobcats should be plenty motivated tonight for a couple reasons.

First, as I mentioned, Charlotte is coming off a 14-point loss at Atlanta last night. The Bobcats take a lot of pride in their defense, and the fact that they allowed the Hawks to shoot over 50% from the floor (and out-rebound them) will have them playing very intensely on their home floor tonight. And the fact that Charlotte played last night does not bother me at all because: 1) So did Orlando; and 2) Charlotte is 8-2 ATS this season when playing without rest. Second, Charlotte has same-season double revenge, as Orlando won both meetings in November, one of which was in Charlotte. You know the Bobcats will be very focused on not letting that happen again.

On the flip side, Orlando is coming off back-to-back double-digit home wins, including last night’s 16-point win over the Kings. The Kings shot just 33% in that game. Orlando is only 4-6 ATS this season when playing without rest. The Magic are only 12-11 on the road this season, and they’re just 1-6 SU in their last seven away from home. So expecting them to go on the road and beat a revenge-minded team that is 18-4 SU at home is asking a lot.

And yes, I know Charlotte point guard Raymond Felton left last night’s game at Atlanta with an ankle injury and is unlikely to play. This would give us another solid angle, as team’s have a tendency to come together and step up with a big performance in their first game without a key player. Being at home just makes that easier to do.

Bottom line: Charlotte is a great home team, and they’re motivated by revenge and the fact that they played poorly last night. Orlando is coming off two double-digit wins, and probably won’t be playing with Charlotte’s intensity given the fact that they’ve already beaten the Bobcats twice this season. Take Charlotte.

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