NBA Basketball Pick 2-28-10

My NBA pick for 2-28-10 is:

Washington Wizards at New Jersey Nets – 6:05 p.m. ET

Bet #807 Washington Wizards -1

 Love the way this game sets up. The Nets are coming off what has to be the upset of the NBA season. Last night, the Nets went into Boston and stunned the Celtics, 104-96. I don’t see how the Nets cannot be flat tonight coming off that HUGE win last night, and there won’t be much of a home crowd to pump them up. That was only the Nets sixth win of the entire season and they have NOT won back-to-back games at all this season. New Jersey is also 0-14 SU on the second of back-to-back games this season, and we’re basically just asking the Wizards to win this game given the short line.

I also find it interesting that the Nets have home games against the East’s best teams, Cleveland and Orlando, up next. After beating Boston (another East power), I expect the Nets to be looking ahead to those next two games simply because it gives them two more chances to knock off the NBA’s elite.

The Wizards, who are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in New Jersey, are coming off back-to-back home losses. But they’ve been playing well, as they shot 50.6% from the field in those two losses. And they had won three of four games prior to those losses. The Wizards have already beaten the Nets twice this season, but New Jersey’s win over Boston last night will keep the Wizards from looking past this game. In fact, that should actually have them motivated tonight.

Bottom line: Just a very bad spot for the absolute worst team in the league. Off a HUGE upset win over Boston and with the Cavs and Magic up next, the Nets are sure to be “off” in this one. The Wizards have been playing decent basketball and they should be motivated coming off two losses and playing a team that just beat Boston. Lay the short number with Washington.

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NBA Basketball Pick 2-27-10

My NBA pick for 2-27-10 is:

Memphis Grizzlies at New York Knicks – 7:35 p.m. ET

Bet #507 Memphis Grizzlies -2.5

 This line opened at a pick, but has gone 2.5 points to Memphis already. It wasn’t public money that moved this line 2.5 points already. But that’s not what this play is about.

Memphis comes into this one off a 4-point home loss to Charlotte last night. The Grizzlies have fallen into a pattern recently. On 2/16, Memphis hosted Phoenix and lost. They followed that with a road win at Toronto. They came back home and lost to Miami. They then went back on the road and beat the Nets. Again they returned home, only to lose to the Lakers. They go back on the road and beat Washington. That brings us to last night’s return home and subsequent loss to Charlotte. So we have home loss, road win, home loss, road win, home loss, road win, and home loss. So what comes next tonight? I think we have a pretty good idea.

The Knicks are coming off an OT win in D.C. last night. That snapped an 8-game losing streak for New York. It should also be noted that it has been nearly two months since the Knicks won back-to-back games. You can expect Tracy McGrady to be less than effective tonight with this being the Knicks’ second game of a back-to-back. The Knicks also have a showdown with the Cavaliers up next, which probably has their attention moreso than tonight’s opponent.

Bottom line: The Knicks haven’t been able to put together consecutive wins in quite some time and Memphis has been following a very clear pattern for almost two weeks now. Memphis is the better team and we’re basically not asking them to do much more than beat an inferior team. I like my chances. Lay the small number with Memphis.

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College Basketball Pick 2-27-10

My college basketball pick for 2-27-10 is:

Oregon State at Southern Cal – 7:30 p.m. ET

Bet #636 Southern Cal -8

 Love the situational spot for USC. This is their last home game of the season and they’re coming off a stunning 10-point home loss as 10.5-point favorites against Oregon. The Trojans shot just 32.8% from the field in that embarrassing loss, which is well below their 44.5% home average. So not only should the Trojans be motivated because it’s their final home game, but also because of that humiliating loss they just suffered in front of their hometown fans.

As if USC needs any more motivation, this is also a revenge spot for them. USC was a 4-point road favorite at Oregon State on 1/28. They left with a 51-45 loss. I normally love taking teams on same-season revenge that lost as the favorite in the first meeting, which is what we have here. Throw in the last home game scenario AND the embarrassing home loss in their last game, and this becomes way too good to pass up. Expect USC’s #1 ranked defense (out of 347 teams, according to Pomeroy’s defensive efficiency rankings) to really clamp down and make a statement. Lay it with Southern Cal.

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NBA Basketball Picks 2-26-10

My NBA picks for 2-26-10 are:

Detroit Pistons at Denver Nuggets – 9:05 p.m. ET

Bet: #817 Detroit Pistons +10

 The Nuggets burned us last night, but we catch them in a tough spot tonight. Yes, they’re at home tonight, where they’re 24-5 SU on the season, but they need much more than a SU win to beat us. Denver shot over 50% from the field, including a ridiculous 16-of-27 (59%) from 3-point range, to beat the Warriors in Oakland last night. So they had to travel back to Denver early this morning knowing they have a huge game against the Lakers on deck. This is the perfect look-ahead spot for Denver, and they’re playing an opponent that has given them fits. Detroit owns seven straight wins over Denver, including a 2-point home win back in December. The Pistons are coming off a loss to the Clippers, so they should be ready to bring a solid effort tonight.

I’ll be surprised if Denver doesn’t play a below average game due to fatigue and looking ahead to the Lakers. With the way Detroit has given the Nuggets fits, I’m confident they can stay within the number in this spot. Grab the points with Detroit.

 

Orlando Magic at New Orleans Hornets – 9:35 p.m. ET on ESPN

Bet: #806 New Orleans Hornets +5

 I love this situation and it has nothing to do with it being a revenge game for the Hornets. Yes, Orlando won at home over the Hornets, 123-117, just 18 days ago. The Magic did not cover the 9.5-point spread and needed a HUGE second half (outscored New Orleans 68-47) to rally for the win. But like I said, the revenge factor is not why I like the Hornets tonight. Consider the revenge motive an added bonus.

What we have here is one team that overachieved in its last game, playing against a team that underachieved in its last game. In this case, I always look at the team that underachieved in its last game. My thinking is that the team that underachieved in its last game will come out more motivated (with something to prove), while the overachieving team may be a bit relaxed after a big performance.

Orlando comes into this one off a huge 18-point win at Houston as 4.5-point chalk. So they covered the spread by 13.5 points, meaning they played well above expectations. They also have a revenge game at home up next against state rival Miami. You know the Magic have to be peeking ahead just a little bit with state bragging rights on the line. And Orlando has shown a penchant for following double-digit ATS wins with an ATS loss.

On the flip side, the Hornets are coming off back-to-back double-digit road losses. The latter of which was a 20-point beatdown at the hands of the Bucks. They were only 6-point dogs and they lost to the spread by 14 points, meaning they played well below expectations. I really think the fact that New Orleans is back home, where they are 19-9 SU this season, is just what they need to get back on track. Playing on national TV (ESPN) should only add to the Hornets’ motivation. Not saying they win straightup, but it wouldn’t surprise me. Grab the points with New Orleans.

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NBA Basketball Pick 2-25-10

My NBA pick for 2-25-10 is:

Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors – 10:35 p.m. ET on TNT

Bet: #506 Golden State Warriors +6

 There seems to be a pattern forming for these Warriors on this 6-game home stand. They started with a 32-point blowout win over the Kings in which they shot 51.5% from the field. They followed that with an 11-point loss to Utah in which they shot just 37%. They bounced back in the next game on the home stand with a win over Atlanta, outscoring the Hawks 35-14 in the fourth quarter and shooting 53.6% for the game (Note: This was a nationally televised game). That brings us to their last game in which they fell behind BIG to the 76ers, rallied in the fourth, but still came away with an 8-point loss (GS shot just 38%).

So the Golden State home stand to this point consists of win (great shooting), loss (poor shooting), win (great shooting on national TV), and loss (poor shooting). See a pattern? Looks to me like it’s bounce-back time on national TV in Oakland tonight. It should be noted that Denver has won all three meetings this season, including a 28-point win in Denver in the first meeting. But the Warriors have given Denver all they can handle in the last two meetings (and at this price), falling by just 1 in Denver and then by 5 in OT in their last meeting in Oakland.

Denver has had three days off since their big home win over Boston. I have to wonder if Denver will match the same intensity as the Warriors will bring into this one. As good as the Nuggets are, they’re just 13-14 on the road this season. With a Western showdown with the Lakers looming on Sunday, I expect the Nuggets will be peeking ahead just a bit. And that should be enough for the Warriors to hang tough yet again. Look for another fourth-quarter rally. Grab the points with Golden State.

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