NBA Basketball Pick 2-24-10

My NBA pick for 2-24-10 is:

Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks – 9:05 p.m. ET on ESPN

Bet: #720 Dallas Mavericks -2

 Kobe’s back and it didn’t take him long to make an impact. Kobe shot 13-of-19 from the field and scored 32 points, including the game winner at Memphis last night. Now they make the trek to Dallas to take on the Mavericks, who have been home since Saturday. That’s a nice little scheduling edge for Dallas.

I also expect a bit less intensity from LA tonight (compared to Dallas) due to having Kobe hit a game-winning shot just last night in what was a revenge situation for the Lakers. On the flip side, the Mavs should be plenty fired up for this one. Dallas won the season’s first meeting with the Lakers in LA by 14 points, but have since lost twice to the Lakers — by 35 in LA and then by 5 here at home. That makes this a double same-season revenge spot on national TV (ESPN).

Since the additions of Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood from Washington, Dallas has played some pretty damn good defense. In the five games since that trade, the Mavs have allowed just 90.8 points per game. Haywood has averaged 11.2 points on 55% shooting, 11 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks. He has been a key to this defensive improvement.

Bottom line: Dallas has been playing very well and now they get the Lakers on their home floor for a double same-season revenge game with LA having just played on the road last night and stealing a win. The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less, while the Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of .600 or better. Looks like a pretty solid spot to back the Mavs. Take Dallas.

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NBA Basketball Pick 2-23-10

My NBA pick for 2-23-10 is:

Philadelphia 76ers at Golden State Warriors – 10:35 p.m. ET

Bet: #515 Philadelphia 76ers (pick)

 Love how this game sets up. The ’6ers are coming off a humiliating 32-point loss in Chicago. Philly shot just 38% in that one, but it should be noted that the ’6ers were coming off a huge upset win over the Spurs when they were heading into that Chicago game. Now Philly has had two days to let that embarrassment stew, and I expect them to come out with a solid effort tonight.

Golden State is coming off an upset home win over Atlanta. The Warriors shot 54% for the game and had to outscore Atlanta 35-14 in the fourth quarter to steal that win. It’s been nearly two months since the Warriors have managed back-to-back wins, and I don’t see that changing tonight against what should be a very motivated ’6ers club.

I love that we have a team off an embarrassing loss facing a team off an upset win. The 76ers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, and the Warriors are just 27-55-2 ATS in their last 84 games following a SU win. That tells me that both teams normally do what I expect them to do in their respective roles tonight. Take Philadelphia.

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NBA Basketball Pick 2-22-10

My NBA pick for 2-22-10 is:

Atlanta Hawks at Utah Jazz – 9:05 p.m. ET

Bet: #707 Atlanta Hawks +5

 This might be a back-to-back situation for Atlanta (and third in four nights), but it’s an even tougher spot for the Jazz. This is Utah’s first game back at home after a four-game road trip. That first home game after a road trip is usually a tough spot for the host, but that’s only the beginning for Utah.

Tonight will be the Jazz’s fifth game in seven days and they just played an OT game in Portland last night. And it wasn’t JUST an OT game. It was an OT game where Utah had to expend a TON of energy rallying from a 25-point deficit. Utah can’t help but be worn out for this one.

Atlanta is deep and therefore they should be a bit fresher throughout this matchup. I know Atlanta has a poor recent history in Utah, but if not tonight, when? The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog of 5 to 10.5 points, and I really expect them to take control late. I’ll grab the points with Atlanta.

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NCAA Basketball Pick 2-21-10

My NCAA basketball pick for 2-21-10 is:

Arizona State at Arizona – 5:30 p.m. ET

Bet: #831 Arizona State -2

 We have a same-season revenge situation and a state rivalry game all rolled into one today in Tucson. Four weeks ago, Arizona State was hosting the Wildcats as 11-point favorites. Arizona dominated the heavily favored Sun Devils in the second half and rolled to a huge 19-point upset win. I’d say that qualifies as an embarrassing loss for the Sun Devils and having that humiliation come at the hands of their state rival only adds salt to the wound. Think ASU will bring a ton of motivation, intensity, and determination today? I sure do.

Looking at that meeting last month, Arizona outshot ASU 51% to 30% from the floor. Not only is that well above the Wildcats’ season average of 43.7%, but it’s also WAY below ASU’s season average of 45.6%. The other thing that stands out to me is the free throw shooting from that game. ASU shot just 59% from the charity stripe (missed 12 of 29 attempts), which is WAY below their season average of 72%. Arizona shot 86% from the free throw line (missed only 4 of 28 attempts), which is well above their season average of 74%.

I expect a return to the norm for both teams in regards to shooting percentages and free throw percentages. ASU had won five straight in this series before that shocking home blowout loss last month. I expect the Sun Devils to return the favor today against their bitter rival and embarrass the Wildcats in front of their home fans. Take Arizona State.

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College Basketball Pick 2-20-10

My college basketball pick for 2-20-10 is:

Kentucky at Vanderbilt – 6:00 p.m. ET on ESPN

Bet: #574 Vanderbilt -1

 It’s never easy to go against a talented team like Kentucky, but this is a tough situational spot for what is a very young team. The Wildcats travel to Memorial Gym to take on the revenge-minded Commodores, who are a perfect 13-0 at home this season. Kentucky is coming off a come-from-behind OT win at Mississippi State. The Wildcats trailed by seven with three minutes left in regulation, but rallied to force OT and eventually got the W.

What makes this a tough spot for the young Wildcats is that not only are they coming off a big road win, but they have a HUGE revenge game against South Carolina up next. The Gamecocks are the only blemish on Kentucky’s record this season, so you know this young team has that on their minds. And even the slightest distraction could prove costly in this setting.

Vandy will not only be playing for a share of the SEC East lead, but they’re also playing with revenge from a 13-point loss at Kentucky three weeks ago. In that contest, Kentucky hit an impressive 12 of 23 shots from 3-point range (52%), which is well above their season average of 36.6%. That average dips to just 31.3% on the road, so I expect the Wildcats to have significantly more trouble getting those 3′s to drop in this road setting. Kentucky was also +17 in rebounds in that first meeting. I also expect that battle on the boards to even out tonight.

Vandy will not be intimidated by Kentucky tonight, as the Commodores have won four straight in this gym against the Wildcats. And playing with revenge on national TV (ESPN) will only add to Vandy’s motivation and intensity. If this game is close late, I also like the fact that Vandy is the better free throw shooting team, especially when looking at each team’s home/road stats. I truly think the Wildcats will be distracted just enough by that huge revenge game up next, and Vandy will take advantage. Take Vanderbilt.

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