Baseball Pick 5-31-10
May 31, 2010 at 1:30 pm ET by Dwayne Bryant · Leave a Comment
My baseball pick for 5-31-10 is:
Milwaukee Brewers at Florida Marlins – 1:10 p.m. ET
Bet #903/904 OVER 9.5 -120 (Narveson & Robertson MUST START)
Short Analysis: Average runs in Narveson’s 3 road starts this season: 10.33; Average runs in Robertson’s 5 home starts this season: 11. Milwaukee’s bullpen owns a 5.34 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, .386 OBP, and .297 opponents’ BA on the road. Florida’s pen sports a 4.70 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and .357 OBP at home. We know both teams can hit and they should have no trouble scoring runs against these starters and bullpens. 5 of 7 in this series went OVER last season and I see no reason why this one would be any different. Go OVER the total.
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MLB Pick 5-30-10
May 30, 2010 at 1:30 pm ET by Dwayne Bryant · Leave a Comment
My MLB pick for 5-30-10 is:
Oakland A’s at Detroit Tigers – 1:05 p.m. ET
Bet #970 Detroit Tigers -125 (Braden & Scherzer MUST START)
At first glance, the public will look at this game and see the following: The A’s have won 4 straight (including the first two in this series), while the Tigers have lost 4 straight. Dallas Braden, the owner of a perfect game this season, owns a 3.23 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 2010. Max Scherzer owns a 7.29 ERA and 1.67 WHIP on the season. So let’s pound the A’s today, right? As Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast!”
I see this game a little differently. First, Dallas Braden has struggled on the road this season, sporting a 5.32 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in four road starts. The A’s won just one of those games. Braden is also suffering from an ankle injury. The injury has been lingering since May 3rd and bothered him enough to force him to leave his last start after four innings. So he’s definitely NOT 100% and there’s no telling how much this injury will affect him today.
Several Tigers have had success against Braden in their careers. Amongst those with more than a handful of at-bats: Johnny Damon (2-for-7, .286 BA, 1 double), Gerald Laird (6-for-15, .400 BA, 2 doubles), Ryan Raburn (6-for-12, .500 BA, 2 doubles, 1 homer), and Magglio Ordonez (4-for-13, .308 BA, 1 double, 2 homers). A couple other Tigers with limited AB’s against Braden have hit him well, including Ramon Santiago, who has a double and a triple in two at-bats against the lefty.
Max Scherzer has put up some awful numbers this season (some listed above), but he has a couple things going for him today. First, Scherzer has been called up from Triple-A Toledo to make his first start for the Tigers since May 14. Scherzer posted a 0.60 ERA while winning his two starts with Toledo. He should have regained some confidence and now he’s bringing that confidence with him on the mound today against an A’s lineup that has never faced him with the exception of Kevin Kouzmanoff (1-for-6). That’s a nice edge for Scherzer and Detroit.
Bottom line: Braden is not 100% and several Tigers have hit him well. Scherzer’s trip to Triple A was a success and should’ve given him the confidence to have success against a team that hasn’t faced him. Oakland is 9-14 on the road while Detroit 14-8 at home. Look for Detroit to avoid the home sweep and get the W today. Take Detroit/Scherzer over Oakland/Braden.
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Baseball Pick 5-29-10
May 29, 2010 at 7:30 pm ET by Dwayne Bryant · Leave a Comment
My baseball pick for 5-29-10 is:
Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox – 7:10 p.m. ET
Bet #930 Boston Red Sox -145 (Greinke & Buchholz MUST START)
The Royals have managed to take the first two games of this four-game series in Boston, but I expect the Red Sox to grab the W tonight. Clay Buchholz owns a 1.77 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in his last three starts, while Greinke sports a 6.61 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in his last three outings. Buchholz has faced the Royals three times (all in KC) and is 2-1 with a solid 3.06 ERA. Greinke owns a nice 3.18 ERA in four career starts against Boston, but all were at home. Greinke faced Boston once this season and allowed 4 runs on 8 hits in 6 2/3 innings of an 8-3 loss. Greinke got shelled in his last start, allowing 7 earned runs on 9 hits in just 3 1/3 innings against Colorado. So it’s important to note that the Royals are 1-6 in Greinke’s last 7 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance. The Red Sox are 11-1 in Buchholz’s last 12 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Take Boston/Buchholz over KC/Greinke.
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NBA Playoff Pick 5-27-10
May 27, 2010 at 3:20 pm ET by Dwayne Bryant · Leave a Comment
My NBA playoff pick for Thursday 5-27-10 is:
Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers – 9:00 p.m. ET
Bet #520 Los Angeles Lakers -7.5
The Lakers find themselves in a war after losing both games in Phoenix. With the series tied at two games each, I expect the Lakers to take back control of this series tonight at the Staples Center. These two have squared off four times in LA this season (2 regular season games & 2 in this series). The Lakers have won (and covered) all four of those meetings with the final margins of 19, 20, 21, and 12 points. The change in venue makes all the difference when these two lock horns. And the Lakers are very good at bouncing back from consecutive losses. Including the playoffs, the Lakers are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season when coming off back-to-back losses. Lay the points with the Lakers.
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MLB Pick 5-26-10
May 26, 2010 at 10:30 pm ET by Dwayne Bryant · Leave a Comment
My MLB pick for 5-26-10 is:
St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres – 10:05 p.m. ET
Bet #963 St. Louis Cardinals -120 (Garcia & Correia MUST START)
The Cards lost the series opener last night 1-0 despite getting almost twice as many hits (7) as San Diego (4). I expect the Cards to even the series tonight. St. Louis has dominated San Diego in recent years. The Cardinals were 6-1 against the Padres in 2008 and 6-1 again in 2009. Let’s look at the starting pitchers.
Jaime Garcia will be on the bump for St. Louis and he has been “lights out” this season. Garcia owns a 1.28 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and .286 OBP overall. He has also been very solid on the road, sporting a 2.08 ERA in five road outings. What I also like is that only one of the main Padres hitters has faced Garcia. Chase Headley has a single in 2 AB’s and that’s IT for the team against Garcia. That is a HUGE edge for Garcia and the Cards.
Kevin Correia has given up 4 runs in 3 of his last 4 starts and he owns a 5.71 ERA over his last 3 trips to the mound. Some key Cardinals have had success against Correia. Albert Pujols owns a 1.038 OPS against him. Matt Holliday owns a .969 OPS against Correia. Colby Rasmus is 1-for-3 with a homer against him. Skip Schumaker is 3-for-7 with a double and a walk against Correia. I’ll be surprised if the Cardinals don’t score at least 4 runs tonight and that should be enough to get the job done.
Bottom line: The bullpens are both very good, but we have a clear edge in starting pitching with Garcia. Not only does Garcia have better numbers than Correia, but he also has the advantage of facing almost all Padres hitters for the first time while Correia has been torched by a few key Cardinals bats. Take St. Louis/Garcia over San Diego/Correia.
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