NBA Playoff Pick 5-27-10

My NBA playoff pick for Thursday 5-27-10 is:

Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers – 9:00 p.m. ET

Bet #520 Los Angeles Lakers -7.5

The Lakers find themselves in a war after losing both games in Phoenix. With the series tied at two games each, I expect the Lakers to take back control of this series tonight at the Staples Center. These two have squared off four times in LA this season (2 regular season games & 2 in this series). The Lakers have won (and covered) all four of those meetings with the final margins of 19, 20, 21, and 12 points. The change in venue makes all the difference when these two lock horns. And the Lakers are very good at bouncing back from consecutive losses. Including the playoffs, the Lakers are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season when coming off back-to-back losses. Lay the points with the Lakers.

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MLB Pick 5-26-10

My MLB pick for 5-26-10 is:

St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres – 10:05 p.m. ET

Bet #963 St. Louis Cardinals -120 (Garcia & Correia MUST START)

The Cards lost the series opener last night 1-0 despite getting almost twice as many hits (7) as San Diego (4). I expect the Cards to even the series tonight. St. Louis has dominated San Diego in recent years. The Cardinals were 6-1 against the Padres in 2008 and 6-1 again in 2009. Let’s look at the starting pitchers.

Jaime Garcia will be on the bump for St. Louis and he has been “lights out” this season. Garcia owns a 1.28 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and .286 OBP overall. He has also been very solid on the road, sporting a 2.08 ERA in five road outings. What I also like is that only one of the main Padres hitters has faced Garcia. Chase Headley has a single in 2 AB’s and that’s IT for the team against Garcia. That is a HUGE edge for Garcia and the Cards.

Kevin Correia has given up 4 runs in 3 of his last 4 starts and he owns a 5.71 ERA over his last 3 trips to the mound. Some key Cardinals have had success against Correia. Albert Pujols owns a 1.038 OPS against him. Matt Holliday owns a .969 OPS against Correia. Colby Rasmus is 1-for-3 with a homer against him. Skip Schumaker is 3-for-7 with a double and a walk against Correia. I’ll be surprised if the Cardinals don’t score at least 4 runs tonight and that should be enough to get the job done.

Bottom line: The bullpens are both very good, but we have a clear edge in starting pitching with Garcia. Not only does Garcia have better numbers than Correia, but he also has the advantage of facing almost all Padres hitters for the first time while Correia has been torched by a few key Cardinals bats. Take St. Louis/Garcia over San Diego/Correia.

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NBA Playoff Pick 5-25-10

My NBA playoff pick for 5-25-10 is:

Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns – 9:00 p.m. ET

Bet #515 Los Angeles Lakers -1.5

We cashed with the Suns in Game 3, but we’re backing the Lakers tonight. Like I said in my Suns write-up, this series is eerily similar to how things went when these teams met in the regular season. Consider this:

Regular Season Game 1 in LA: Lakers roll by 19. Playoffs Game 1 in LA: Lakers roll by 21.

Regular Season Game 2 in LA: Lakers roll by 20. Playoffs Game 2 in LA: Lakers roll by 12.

Regular Season Game 3 in Phoenix: Suns win 118-103. Playoffs Game 3 in Phoenix: Suns win 118-109.

Regular Season Game 4 in Phoenix: Lakers win by 6. Playoffs Game 4 in Phoenix: ???

I love finding patterns in teams’ play. I’ve made a lot of money this way and there’s a definite pattern here. The Lakers have had time to watch film of their Game 3 loss and I fully expect Phil Jackson to have a game plan in place to thwart the Suns’ zone defense. LA takes back control of this series. Take the Lakers.

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Baseball Pick 5-25-10

 My baseball pick for 5-25-10 is:

Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles – 7:05 p.m. ET

Bet #919 Oakland Athletics -105 (Braden & Guthrie MUST START)

We have two starting pitchers who are both pitching very well lately. For me, this boils down to how these guys have fared when facing tonight’s opposing hitters. Dallas Braden has won both of his career starts at Baltimore and is 5-1 with a 1.57 ERA overall against the Orioles, who managed just three hits and two runs against Braden in seven innings of their 4-2 loss April 16th at Oakland.

Orioles hitters have struggled against Braden for the most part. Lead-off hitter Adam Jones is 0-for-11. Nick Markakis is 1-for-14. Matt Wieters and Miguel Tejada are both 1-for-5. Luke Scott is 1-for-8. Only Ty Wigginton has had succes, going 2-for-6 (.333) with a homer.

Several A’s hitters have had success against Guthrie. Rajai Davis is 3-for-8 (.375). Ryan Sweeney is 3-for-5 with a double and a triple. Kurt Suzuki is 5-for-10 with 2 doubles & a homer. Mark Ellis is 4-for-11 (.364).

Problems at the back of the bullpen continue to plague Baltimore, which is dealing with injuries to Alfredo Simon (hamstring) and Koji Uehara (elbow). Closer Michael Gonzalez (shoulder) remains on the disabled list. “It takes its toll on your bullpen,” manager Dave Trembley said. Perhaps Trembley leaves Guthrie in the game just a bit too long as a result? That would surely work in our favor.

Bottom line: Orioles hitters have mostly struggled against Braden, while A’s batters have been mostly productive against Guthrie. The A’s are rolling right now. Oakland pitchers have gone 20 straight innings without allowing a run, and the Athletics gave up a total of six hits in the final two games of their weekend sweep of the rival Giants. Braden’s success against the Orioles should keep that pitching roll going. Take Oakland/Braden over Baltimore/Guthrie.

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NBA Playoff Pick 5-23-10

My NBA playoff pick for 5-23-10 is:

Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns – 8:30 p.m. ET

Bet #512 Phoenix Suns -1.5

Everyone saw Boston hammer Orlando last night to take a 3-0 series lead in the Eastern Finals, so many expect the Lakers to do the same tonight. But I expect the Suns to climb back into this series with a win tonight. Including the playoffs, Phoenix is 36-10 at home this season and the home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. While not exactly the same situation, this does remind me of the regular season. These teams met twice in LA (once in November & December) with the Lakers winning both games by 19 & 20 points. The third season meeting was in Phoenix in late December and the Suns avenged the two road losses to LA by thumping them, 118-103. Being at home clearly makes all the difference to the Suns and I think they claw their way back into this series tonight. Take Phoenix.

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