College Basketball Pick 1-27-10

My college basketball pick for 1-27-10 is:

TCU at Colorado State – 8:00 p.m. ET

Bet: #770 Colorado State -5.5

 It didn’t take me long to determine that I did not like anything in the NBA tonight. But I had MANY strong leans on this huge college hoops card, and it took me quite a while before I decided that the Rams were the best play for tonight.

Two things I always look at when capping hoops games are rebounding and defensive efficiency. Let’s face it, shooting comes and goes, but defense is a constant. A team is either good defensively or it’s not. When I look at these two teams, I see defensive efficiency rankings of 224th for TCU and a much more respectable 118th for Colorado State.

CSU is 8-1 at home, with the only loss coming against UNLV. I’m not concerned at all with the Rams’ three-game losing streak. Two of those games were on the road, and all three were against teams ranked in the Top 50 according to the Pomeroy ratings. CSU also holds teams to 42.5% shooting at home and they have an average home rebound margin of +6.6. The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.

On the flip side, TCU is 1-6 on the road, but they did face some pretty tough competition. TCU has allowed 49.9% shooting on the road with a -.5 rebound margin. The Horned Frogs are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less.

Bottom line: TCU hasn’t proved they can hang in this role, and Colorado State should be plenty motivated to drop the hammer tonight coming off three straight losses against top competition. This big step down in class from those last three opponents is just what the doctor ordered. Lay it with Colorado State.

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