College Basketball Pick 1-30-10

My college basketball pick for 1-30-10 is:

Kansas at Kansas State – 7:00 p.m. ET

Bet: #623 Kansas -4

 I’ve been burned by going against K-State twice this season, so hopefully the third time is the charm. Many people remember the Wildcats knocking off then #1 Texas on national TV, and also getting a big conference road win at Baylor. These same people see K-State’s national ranking and will jump at the points here. I think that’s a mistake.

Texas had been playing rather poorly after they took over the #1 ranking. It sure seemed like the pressure of being #1 was getting to them. And the Wildcats were lying in wait on that Monday night at the Fred Bramlage Coliseum in Manhattan. This is a different story. Kansas is poised to take over the #1 ranking with a win in this one, and the Jayhawks will not be intimidated in this road setting. In fact, the Jayhawks are 25-1 in Manhattan since 1984 and has won 38 of 40 meetings overall since the inception of the Big 12.

Kansas has a height advantage in this one, led by 6’11″ center Cole Aldrich. That should give the Jayhawks the edge on the glass, where they own a +9.4 road rebound margin per game. And let’s not forget power forward Marcus Morris, who has averaged 19 points and 8 boards in his last five games. It should also be noted that Kansas is shooting free throws at a 77.4% clip on the road, while K-State is shooting free throws at just 64.7% at home.

The Jayhawks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as a road favorite of 6.5 points or less, and 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Manhattan. The Wildcats are just 2-5-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less.

Bottom line: Kansas State has one of the best teams they’ve ever had, but it still won’t be good enough to derail Kansas. Both teams will be highly motivated in this state rivalry game. With Kansas unphased by the atmosphere in Manhattan, I expect their superior talent to get the job done. The Jayhawks should win the battle on the glass with their size up front, and Sherron Collins and Xavier Henry can match up with Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen in the backcourt. Kansas is ranked #2 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and that impressive balance at both ends of the floor will just be too much for K-State. I see a Jayhawks win by 10, so lay it with Kansas.

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