College Basketball Pick 3-11-10

My college basketball pick for 3-11-10 is:

UCLA vs. Arizona – 3:00 p.m. ET on FSN

Bet #759 UCLA -1

 This line looks fishy to me. Arizona won both regular season meetings — by five at home exactly a week ago, and by 14 on the road. UCLA limps into the Pac-10 Tournament with three straight losses. Arizona rolls into this tourney with the momentum of a three-game win streak. And Arizona opened as just a 1-point favorite? Really? Wiseguys steamed this game and UCLA is now the 1-point favorite. I thought the line looked “off,” like the books were begging for Arizona money. And they got it, as 70% of the nearly 3,000 reported bets have come in on the Wildcats at the time of this writing. But the “smart money” has spoken and I’m going to follow.

UCLA has a huge size advantage (+2.8 effective height rating according to Pomeroy, as compared to -1.4 for Arizona) and I expect the Bruins to use that to control the boards. UCLA is coming off a loss at Arizona State in which they shot just 32.7% from the field and managed to score just 46 points. It should be noted that the Bruins are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game. I’m following the “sharps” and I recommend you do the same. Take UCLA.

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