College Football Bowl Pick 12-29-09

My college football bowl pick for 12-29-09 is:

Champs Sports Bowl – Wisconsin vs. Miami – 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN

Bet: #225 Wisconsin +4

 Seems like the whole world is on Miami tonight. Think about this: Miami is ranked 10 spots higher than Wisconsin and the game is being played in Florida. Not only that, but it’s pretty common knowledge that Miami has played the tougher schedule. So why did oddsmakers open with Miami as just a 1.5-point favorite?

Motivation is a big part of bowl handicapping, and I feel the edge goes to the Badgers. Normally, these student athletes like to go out of their home state to play a bowl game. But the Hurricanes have to stay in Florida. On the flip side, the kids from Madison, Wisconsin get to come to warm, sunny Florida. But that’s only half of their motivation. The Badgers were completely embarrassed by Florida State in this same bowl game last year, 42-13. Don’t think that motivates the Badgers? Check this out: “(That loss) really left a bad taste in our mouth,” defensive back Chris Maragos said. “The whole offseason we wanted to prepare and make sure that didn’t happen again. ? We put ourselves in the position to redeem ourselves.”

These teams are very evenly matched, so taking more than a FG is a very solid play. Miami does have a speed edge, but I feel Wisconsin has the size in the trenches, and that’s where games are won and lost. The Badgers are as balanced an offense as you’ll find, averaging over 200 yards on the ground AND through the air. That balance makes the dog even more appealing.

As I mentioned, Miami has a speed edge, but a couple factors favor Wisconsin. First, Miami QB Jacory Harris won’t have star left tackle Jason Fox protecting him during this game due to a knee injury that required surgery. That’s bad news considering Wisconsin is 21st in the nation in sacks, while Miami is 91st in sacks allowed.

Bottom line: I think Wisconsin is the more motivated team and I like their size in the trenches. And with that balanced offense, they’ll have Miami guessing all night. I think Wisconsin wins outright, so the points are a gift. Take Wisconsin.

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