NBA Basketball Pick 1-28-10

My NBA basketball pick for 1-28-10 is:

Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks – 7:35 p.m. ET

Bet: #502 New York Knicks -3.5

 There are several reasons why the Knicks are my Basketball Best Bet of the Week. The public has lined up to back the Raptors, in large part because they’re coming off back-to-back wins over Miami and the Lakers. But those wins were both at home where Toronto is 16-6 this season. This game, however, is on the road where Toronto is just 8-16 SU and 10-14 ATS.

In that last game against Miami, Toronto shot 56.8% from the floor. I expect that number to drop significantly tonight, as the Raptors play for the second time in as many nights. The Raptors are just 2-8 ATS in their last ten games when playing without rest. So fatigue should be a factor for Toronto tonight, especially in the second half.

This is the last game of a five-game homestand for the Knicks. They’re 2-2, with the two losses coming against Dallas and the Lakers — two of the best teams in the league. Toronto is definitely not in that class, especially when on the road (see road record above). The Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.

This is also a big revenge spot for the Knicks. Toronto visited the Knicks just 13 days ago and handed them a 112-104 loss. The Raptors shot 53.4% from the floor, including 12-of-22 (54.5%) from three-point range. I really doubt they get anywhere near those percentages tonight, given how they’ve performed in these “second game of a back-to-back” situations.

Bottom line: The “smart money” is obviously on the Knicks. As I eluded to earlier, 63% of the reported bets have come in on Toronto, yet this line moved from Knicks -3 to as much as -4 at one point. So not only do we have the “wiseguys” on our side, but we have a revenge motive and what should be a fatigued road team that does not play well on the road in any circumstances. Lay it with New York as my Basketball Best Bet of the Week.

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