NBA Basketball Pick 1-29-10

My NBA pick for 1-29-10 is:

Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:05 p.m. ET

Bet: #814 Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5

 Love the way this game sets up. This is a rematch of a game played in Denver last month, in which the Nuggets were 9-point home winners. It appears Carmelo Anthony will be back tonight after missing Wednesday’s game at Houston with a sprained ankle. That alone will have the public lining up to play the Nuggets. If only it were that easy.

This is the second game of a short three-game road trip for Denver. They won at Houston on Wednesday without ‘Melo, and have a date in San Antonio on Sunday. The Nuggets have won five straight and nine of 10 in this series, and they’ve been favored in every one of them. They’ve also won eight straight games heading into this one. So why are they the dogs tonight?

The Thunder have dropped three straight, but the first two were on the road at Memphis & Cleveland, and their last game was their first game back at home after a four-game road trip and they ran into a Chicago buzz saw. That first home game after a road trip is always a tough spot for the hosts, but I expect the Thunder to bring the intensity tonight; Not just because it’s a revenge game, but also because it’s not too hard to get jacked up (that’s for you, jackedup339) to face a division rival that just so happens to be leading the division. The Thunder only shot 37% from the floor against the Bulls, and I expect a much better effort tonight.

From a trend perspective: The Nuggets are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games, and 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Nuggets are also 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Thunder are 7-2 ATS in the next game after a home loss this season, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.

Bottom line: We have a revenge-minded home team playing against their division leader, and coming off a bad home loss. We have a road team that has won eight straight, but only two were on the road and one of those two was against an injury-riddled team (GS). And this road team is mediocre at best away from home. I know the Thunder and their crowd will be fired up tonight and I’m sure they’ll give it everything they’ve got. Lay the small number with Oklahoma City.

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