NBA Basketball Picks 2-26-10

My NBA picks for 2-26-10 are:

Detroit Pistons at Denver Nuggets – 9:05 p.m. ET

Bet: #817 Detroit Pistons +10

 The Nuggets burned us last night, but we catch them in a tough spot tonight. Yes, they’re at home tonight, where they’re 24-5 SU on the season, but they need much more than a SU win to beat us. Denver shot over 50% from the field, including a ridiculous 16-of-27 (59%) from 3-point range, to beat the Warriors in Oakland last night. So they had to travel back to Denver early this morning knowing they have a huge game against the Lakers on deck. This is the perfect look-ahead spot for Denver, and they’re playing an opponent that has given them fits. Detroit owns seven straight wins over Denver, including a 2-point home win back in December. The Pistons are coming off a loss to the Clippers, so they should be ready to bring a solid effort tonight.

I’ll be surprised if Denver doesn’t play a below average game due to fatigue and looking ahead to the Lakers. With the way Detroit has given the Nuggets fits, I’m confident they can stay within the number in this spot. Grab the points with Detroit.

Orlando Magic at New Orleans Hornets – 9:35 p.m. ET on ESPN

Bet: #806 New Orleans Hornets +5

 I love this situation and it has nothing to do with it being a revenge game for the Hornets. Yes, Orlando won at home over the Hornets, 123-117, just 18 days ago. The Magic did not cover the 9.5-point spread and needed a HUGE second half (outscored New Orleans 68-47) to rally for the win. But like I said, the revenge factor is not why I like the Hornets tonight. Consider the revenge motive an added bonus.

What we have here is one team that overachieved in its last game, playing against a team that underachieved in its last game. In this case, I always look at the team that underachieved in its last game. My thinking is that the team that underachieved in its last game will come out more motivated (with something to prove), while the overachieving team may be a bit relaxed after a big performance.

Orlando comes into this one off a huge 18-point win at Houston as 4.5-point chalk. So they covered the spread by 13.5 points, meaning they played well above expectations. They also have a revenge game at home up next against state rival Miami. You know the Magic have to be peeking ahead just a little bit with state bragging rights on the line. And Orlando has shown a penchant for following double-digit ATS wins with an ATS loss.

On the flip side, the Hornets are coming off back-to-back double-digit road losses. The latter of which was a 20-point beatdown at the hands of the Bucks. They were only 6-point dogs and they lost to the spread by 14 points, meaning they played well below expectations. I really think the fact that New Orleans is back home, where they are 19-9 SU this season, is just what they need to get back on track. Playing on national TV (ESPN) should only add to the Hornets’ motivation. Not saying they win straightup, but it wouldn’t surprise me. Grab the points with New Orleans.

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