NCAA Football Bowl Pick 12-30-09

My NCAA football bowl pick for 12-30-09 is:

Holiday Bowl – Nebraska vs. Arizona – 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN

Bet: #231 Nebraska -2.5

 Note: There are a few -2.5 out there. If your outs have -3, then I suggest buying the half-point down to -2.5 if you can. Three is just such a HUGE key number in football games, so we always want to get -2.5 or +3.5 whenever possible.

Anytime I can get the most dominant player on the field and the most dominant unit on the field and only have to win by a FG, I’m almost always going to jump all over that. Such is the case in this Holiday Bowl matchup with Nebraska’s defense, led by DT Ndamukong Suh. The 6-foot-4, 300-pound defensive tackle finished fourth in the Heisman Trophy voting, took home four other prestigious awards and was a unanimous first-team All-American. Suh, leading the Huskers with 82 tackles, 12 sacks and 23 tackles for loss, put on his best performance in the Big 12 title game against Texas. Facing a barrage of double-team blocks, Suh matched a career high with 12 tackles – nine for zero or negative yards – and had 4 1/2 sacks. The guy is a game-changer all by himself.

But let’s not forget that this Huskers defense as a whole is ranked 9th in the nation in yards allowed (284.54 yards per game), 2nd in points allowed (11.23 points per game), 3rd in sacks per game (3.23), and 3rd in pass efficiency defense. In the Big 12 title game against Texas, this Huskers D allowed that potent Texas offense just 13 points and 202 total yards! To further illustrate just how impressive this Nebraska D is: They faced six bowl teams this season and held them to an average of 14 points and 254.7 total yards of offense per game!

Now I know Arizona’s defense is pretty good too, but they’re not in Nebraska’s league. A strong indicator of offensive and defensive strength is yards per point (ypp). Arizona’s D has a ypp of about 13 (not very good). Nebraska’s offense has a ypp of 13, so as bad as everyone thinks the Huskers offense is, they should have enough success to get the job done, especially with that D giving them good field position throughout the game. Arizona’s offense has a ypp of about 14, but that Nebraska D has a defensive ypp of 25! Can you say DOMINANT? Arizona QB Nick Foles has played well and so has their o-line, but they have not seen this type of pass rush this season. And Foles isn’t shifty enough to elude that Huskers pass rush.

So in a game like this, where defense should rule, it would figure that the kickers would be very important. Nebraska’s Alex Henery has made 20 of his 24 FG attempts this season (83.3%), and three of those four misses were from 50 yards and longer. So he’s basically automatic from inside 50 yards. Arizona’s Alex Zendejas (yes, another from the Zendejas family of kickers) made 17 of his 22 FG attempts this season (77.3%). That’s not bad either, but the problem is that Zendejas had two misses from 20-29 yards and two more misses from 30-39 yards. To further put this in perspective: Henery’s average miss came from 49.5 yards, while Zendejas’ average miss came from 32.6 yards! So in this game where kickers could play a very vital role, Nebraska has the clear edge.

Bottom line: We’re getting the most dominant player in the game on by far the most dominant unit in the game, and we only need to win by a FG. Lay it with Nebraska.

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