NFL Football Pick 11-29-09

Looking to make it 17 straight football winners with this NFL pick for 11-29-09:

#205 Indianapolis Colts at #206 Houston Texans – 1:00 p.m. ET

NFL Game of the Week: OVER 47

I’m not much of a totals player, but every now and then an opportunity presents itself that I just can’t pass up. This line opened at 49 and is now down to 47.5 and 47 depending where you look. Much of this has to do with the Colts not putting up a ton of points lately. Indy has scored 20 points or less in three of their last four games. Houston is coming off back-to-back 17-point offensive performances. Sprinkle in the fact that these two teams met just a few weeks ago with a final score of 20-17, and it’s no wonder people are betting the under. I think that’s a huge mistake.

These are two of the best passing teams in the league. The Colts are the #1-ranked passing offense, while Houston comes in at #3. They say that points come out of the passing game, and that will be very clear in this one. Peyton Manning will carve up the Houston defense and you know he’ll be focused on scoring a ton considering Indy’s lack of big points lately. The last time Indy faced another top passing offense was two weeks ago when they beat the Patriots, 35-34.

Matt Schaub should have success as well, as the Colts’ secondary is missing Bob Sanders, Marlin Jackson, and Kelvin Hayden. But the biggest loss of all is DE Dwight Freeney, who didn’t make the trip. That is a HUGE loss to the Colts’ pass rush and that will leave those young, inexperienced cornerbacks on an island trying to cover Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, and company. Let’s not forget RB Steve Slaton, who is a great receiver with top speed. Houston will try to get him in space, as he is a TD waiting to happen.

There were quite a few points left off the scoreboard in that 20-17 meeting a few weeks ago, so don’t let that low total fool you. Up until that game, these two teams had gone OVER the total in EIGHT straight meetings. They have gone OVER the total in their last four meetings in Houston, and check out these final score totals: 58, 51, 54, and 58. I see this game also falling into that 51-58 area. Take the OVER as my NFL Game of the Week play.

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