NFL Monday Night Football Pick 12-28-09

My NFL Monday Night Football Pick for 12-28-09 is:

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears – 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN

Bet: #132 Chicago Bears +8

 Do I think the Bears are the better team? Of course not, but if the better team always won and covered the spread, the books would be out of business. We just saw the 2-12 Buccaneers go into New Orleans as 14-point dogs and upset the 13-1 Saints, so anything is possible. Anytime we have a divisional home dog getting more than a TD on Monday night, we have to take a good look at that home dog. The value definitely lies with the Bears. When these two teams met in Minnesota just a few weeks ago, the Vikings were a 10-point home favorite. Allowing three points for home field advantage, it would figure that the Bears would be a four-point dog tonight. But instead, we’re getting more than a TD with Chicago. That’s A LOT of value to ignore, especially for a team playing at home with same-season revenge against a division rival on a Monday night.

Brett Favre led the Vikings to a 10-1 start by throwing 24 touchdowns and three interceptions, but the 40-year-old has had three TDs and four interceptions in the three games since. That dropoff is eerily similar to his final five games with the New York Jets last season. Favre helped that team open 8-3, but the Jets missed the playoffs by dropping four of their final five as he totaled nine interceptions and two TDs. Minnesota played their first game in wintry conditions last Sunday night and Carolina easily handled them, 26-7. The wind will be a lot stronger and the temperature a lot colder tonight in Chicago. And I have to believe that, although they have no shot at the playoffs, the Bears will be plenty motivated to: 1) avenge that 36-10 loss at Minnesota from a few weeks ago; and 2) keep the Vikings from earning a first-round bye or possibly even home-field advantage. The value clearly lies with the Bears tonight. Grab the points with Chicago.

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