My college basketball pick for 3-11-10 is:

UCLA vs. Arizona – 3:00 p.m. ET on FSN

Bet #759 UCLA -1

 This line looks fishy to me. Arizona won both regular season meetings — by five at home exactly a week ago, and by 14 on the road. UCLA limps into the Pac-10 Tournament with three straight losses. Arizona rolls into this tourney with the momentum of a three-game win streak. And Arizona opened as just a 1-point favorite? Really? Wiseguys steamed this game and UCLA is now the 1-point favorite. I thought the line looked “off,” like the books were begging for Arizona money. And they got it, as 70% of the nearly 3,000 reported bets have come in on the Wildcats at the time of this writing. But the “smart money” has spoken and I’m going to follow.

UCLA has a huge size advantage (+2.8 effective height rating according to Pomeroy, as compared to -1.4 for Arizona) and I expect the Bruins to use that to control the boards. UCLA is coming off a loss at Arizona State in which they shot just 32.7% from the field and managed to score just 46 points. It should be noted that the Bruins are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game. I’m following the “sharps” and I recommend you do the same. Take UCLA.

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My NCAA basketball pick for 3-10-10 is:

Air Force vs. Wyoming – 5:00 p.m. ET on MTN

Bet #643 Air Force +1

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My college basketball pick for 3-9-10 is:

Wright State at Butler – 9:00 p.m. ET on ESPN

Bet #587 Wright State +7

 These two met twice in conference play this season, with Butler coming away with a pair of 12-point wins. The Bulldogs were an 8-point home favorite in the last meeting, so why are they just a 7-point favorite in this Horizon League Championship game tonight? In that earlier meeting at Butler, the Bulldogs shot an incredible 67.5% from the field. I seriously doubt they can duplicate that tonight.

It’s hard to imagine either team not bringing their A-game tonight, but I think Wright State takes it up another notch because they know this is their only chance to make the NCAA Tournament. Last night, we saw St. Mary’s manhandle Gonzaga after getting beat twice during the regular season. I’m not saying Wright State will blowout Butler, but I am saying that the team that got swept during the regular season tends to play very well in the third meeting.

Last season, Butler beat Wright State by 18 and 16 points during the regular season. When the Horizon League Tournament matchup came along, Butler managed just a five-point win. I can see a similar scenario playing out tonight. Grab the points with Wright State.

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My second of two NCAA basketball picks for 3-7-10 is:

Michigan at Michigan State – 4:00 p.m. ET on ESPN

Bet #871 Michigan +10

 This is a rematch from a game played in Ann Arbor on 1/26. Michigan State escaped with a 1-point win in that one. The surprising thing is that it was ONLY a 1-point win despite the Spartans outshooting Michigan 49% to 33% AND outrebounding the Wolverines by 16 boards!

What kept that game close was Michigan being +14 in turnovers. That may sound like something very difficult to repeat in today’s game, but don’t be surprised if Michigan at least gets close to that number again. Out of 347 Division I teams, the Spartans are 200th in offensive turnover percentage and 254th in defensive turnover percentage. On the flip side, the Wolverines rank 5th in offensive turnover percentage and 46th in defensive turnover percentage.

In looking at Michigan’s other road games against top conference foes, I see the Wolverines losing by 11 at Ohio State, 10 at Purdue, and just six at Wisconsin. I have those three teams all ranked higher than the Spartans, so I can definitely see Michigan hanging tough here. And you know the Wolverines would love nothing more than to ruin their state rival’s senior day.

In looking at Michigan State’s other home games against weaker conference foes, I see the Spartans winning by just two against Penn State, nine against Northwestern, and seven against Iowa — all teams I have ranked below Michigan.

Bottom line: Michigan has already proved that they can be majorly outshot and dominated on the boards by the Spartans and still have a chance to win. So there’s no doubt Michigan will be able to at least match Michigan State’s intensity, especially with revenge on their minds and the chance to ruin their state rival’s senior day. Looking at each team’s home/road games against similar competition only verified what I already believed: The Wolverines can hang here. Grab the points with Michigan.

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My first of two college basketball picks for 3-7-10 is:

Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan – 2:00 p.m. ET

Bet #835 Northern Illinois +8.5

 I always like to look for rematches this time of the CBB season. In this case, these two teams have squared off twice this season, with both teams winning on their home floor. Northern Illinois was the host on 1/16 and won 77-69. NIU outshot EMU 45% to 35%, which was the difference in the game. Everything else was pretty much even.

Eastern Michigan was the host of their most recent meeting. They got their revenge on 2/27, winning 66-60 as 9-point home chalk. So they didn’t cover the spread, but a closer look shows they were lucky to even win the game. NIU shot a pathetic 9-of-25 (36%) from the free throw line in that contest, which is well below their season average of 64.3%. EMU also got to the line a ridiculous 48 times, but made just 26 (54%). That’s below their season average of 65.5%, but nowhere near the fall-off that NIU had.

Bottom line: These two teams have played two pretty evenly matched games this season. Records aside, Eastern Michigan hasn’t shown anything in those two head-to-head meetings that would lead me to believe they will run away with this game. I expect another hard-fought game that should be decided by one or two possessions. Grab the points with Northen Illinois.

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My last of two NCAA basketball picks for 3-6-10 is:

North Carolina at Duke – 9:00 p.m. ET on ESPN

Bet #614 Duke -14.5

 Some will look at the team names and think North Carolina +14.5 is a gift. They’d be mistaken. This is a far cry from the UNC teams we’ve grown accustomed to seeing. These Tar Heels are just 16-14 on the season and just 5-10 in conference play. These two met in Chapel Hill on 2/10. Duke won that road battle by 10 points despite shooting just 32% from the field and 61% from the free throw line!

What do you think will happen now that the scene shifts to Cameron Indoor Stadium? I seriously doubt Duke gets held to 32% shooting at home where they average 86 points per game on 47% shooting, including 42.3% from three-point range. And I doubt they shoot just 61% from the charity stripe, given that they are hitting at a 75.6% clip for the season.

Duke’s average home victory margin is 26 points this season. They’ve held their visiting foes to 60 points per game on 38% shooting. UNC has only shot 40.3% on the road this season, where they are just 2-7. The Tar Heels have already lost by 19 at Clemson, 21 at Maryland, and 17 at Georgia Tech. So don’t doubt for a second that Duke can’t pound them by 20+ tonight.

I should also note that Duke is coming off a 79-72 loss at Maryland. Duke has only lost three other games since conference play started (one was a non-conference loss at Georgetown). Duke is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in the game following each loss. That includes a 20-point home beatdown of Boston College, a 13-point win as just a 2-point favorite at Clemson, and a 19-point home win over Georgia Tech.

Bottom line: Duke will be motivated playing on national TV (ESPN) in their final home game of the season. Coming off a loss only adds more fuel to the fire. Duke played poorly at UNC last month and still came away with a 10-point win. I fully expect them to double that tonight. Don’t let the team names fool you. This isn’t the same North Carolina you’re used to seeing. Lay the heavy wood with Duke.

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My first of two college basketball picks for 3-6-10 is:

Iowa State at Kansas State – 6:00 p.m. ET

Bet #592 Kansas State -15

 First, I’d like to apologize for being late with my plays today. This was a HUGE card to handicap today and I underestimated how long it would take to narrow things down. But I’d rather do the proper research and be late posting the plays, as opposed to rushing the plays to meet a deadline without completely finishing the research.

I rarely lay double digits, but I’m doing it twice today because I feel the situations justify it. Iowa State is coming off their final home game, which was a senior night loss to Missouri. They battled the Tigers and fell by just a bucket in OT. I can’t imagine the Cyclones having much of anything left in the tank for this one. They do have the revenge motive for a home loss to these Wildcats back on 2/6, but they just don’t have the talent (3-12 in conference play) to do anything about it.

K-State is coming off a blowout loss to state rival Kansas. Not only should they be plenty motivated coming off that embarrassing beatdown, but it’s also their final home game of the season and you know Bramlage Coliseum will be rockin’.

What I really like is how the Wildcats respond to defeat. Prior to their last game, K-State had lost four other times this season. They are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in the game following the loss. That includes a 23-point rout of Texas A&M, an upset win at Baylor, and a 19-point blowout win at Nebraska.

Bottom line: Iowa State lacks the talent to compete and I don’t see them having much in the way of motivation either. K-State has performed flawlessly when coming off a loss, and I don’t see that changing in their last home game tonight. Lay it with Kansas State.

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My NBA pick for 3-5-10 is:

#803 Los Angeles Lakers at #804 Charlotte Bobcats – 7:05 p.m. ET

Bet: UNDER 190.5

When a top defensive team is coming off a poor defensive outing, you can usually count on them to put a huge emphasis on clamping down on their next opponent. You can double that tonight. The Lakers and Bobcats are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA and they’ll both be looking to clamp down tonight after their previous performance.

Charlotte is #2 in the NBA in points allowed per game (94.5). The Bobcats are coming off a blowout loss in Boston in which they allowed 104 points on 53.5% shooting, including 10-of-16 (62.5%) from three-point range. Now the Bobcats come back home where they allow just 91.6 points per game on 43.1% shooting. You can expect these Bobcats to be challenging every shot and scrambling for every rebound tonight.

The Lakers are #7 in the NBA in points allowed per game (96.4) and #5 in field-goal percentage allowed (44.1%). They played in Miami last night, losing to the Heat in OT, 114-111. They gave up 99 points in regulation, which isn’t terrible. But what will have them defensively motivated tonight is the fact that Miami shot 52.5% from the field, including 47.4% from three-point range.

The last time these two met in Charlotte was 3/31/09. They combined for 178 points with a posted total of 192 (very close to tonight’s line). I can see a very similar result tonight. The Under is 5-1 in the Lakers’ last 6 games as a road favorite, and 25-10 in their last 35 games following a S.U. loss. The Under is also 23-10 in the Bobcats’ last 33 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.

Bottom line: These are two proud defensive teams and I truly expect both teams to challenge every shot and play a solid defensive game, especially considering both teams’ most recent performance. Play the UNDER in this one.

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My NBA basketball pick for 3-3-10 is:

Philadelphia 76ers at Atlanta Hawks – 7:05 p.m. ET

Bet #703 Philadelphia 76ers +8.5

 I love when we have a team getting points who “underachieved” in their last game and is playing a team who overachieved” in their last contest. That’s what we have tonight in Atlanta. I realize this is one of those “hold your nose” type plays, but those are some of the best plays.

Atlanta comes into this one off a huge 24-point win at Chicago. They were 1-point dogs, meaning they covered the spread by 25 points. THAT is “overachieving” in my book, which makes this a good spot for a letdown. The oddsmakers and wiseguys agree.

This line opened at Atlanta only -9. I say “only -9″ because these two met in Philly in late November. Atlanta was -5.5 in that game and won by 14. Now they play the 76ers at home and the line only goes up 3.5 points?

The line for tonight’s game opened at Atlanta -9. At this time, over 6,300 bets have been reported and 74% of those bets have been on the Hawks. Yet the line has dropped to 8.5!

Philly comes into this one off a 21-point loss at home against Orlando. They were only 4-point dogs, so they lost ATS by 17 points. THAT is what I call underachieving, and apparently so does coach Eddie Jordan. Jordan ripped into his team after that loss, accusing his team of having no internal leadership and a poor demeanor.

“I didn’t call anyone in particular out,” Jordan said. “When I talked about leadership, it went beyond leadership, just someone – someone – to bring some sort of spirit and competitive spirit.”

“The message was clear: We need to play better,” said guard Lou Williams.

I’m not about to call for an outright win, but the 76ers should be in this game all the way. The 76ers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, which shows they tend to bounce back strong off an embarrassing loss. And the verbal lashing they took from coach Jordan should only enhance that bounce-back ability tonight. Grab the points with Philadelphia.

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My NCAA basketball pick for 3-2-10 is:

Miami (FL) at North Carolina – 8:00 p.m. ET

Bet #531 Miami (FL) +4

 I like the way this game sets up. Miami is coming off an upset 71-66 home loss to NC State. They were favored by 7 points in that one, but now they’re getting points in this bounce-back spot. Miami should be motivated coming off that loss. North Carolina is coming off an upset win — 77-68 as 7-point dogs at Wake Forest. UNC also has a huge revenge game up next at arch-rival Duke, so their focus could be a bit lacking tonight.

Bottom line: I like finding teams coming off a loss in which they were favored, playing against a team that is coming off an upset win. I like it even more when the team off the favorite loss is getting the points. That’s exactly what we have in this one tonight. Grab the points with Miami.

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