Baseball Pick 5-29-10

My baseball pick for 5-29-10 is:

Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox – 7:10 p.m. ET

Bet #930 Boston Red Sox -145 (Greinke & Buchholz MUST START)

The Royals have managed to take the first two games of this four-game series in Boston, but I expect the Red Sox to grab the W tonight. Clay Buchholz owns a 1.77 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in his last three starts, while Greinke sports a 6.61 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in his last three outings. Buchholz has faced the Royals three times (all in KC) and is 2-1 with a solid 3.06 ERA. Greinke owns a nice 3.18 ERA in four career starts against Boston, but all were at home. Greinke faced Boston once this season and allowed 4 runs on 8 hits in 6 2/3 innings of an 8-3 loss. Greinke got shelled in his last start, allowing 7 earned runs on 9 hits in just 3 1/3 innings against Colorado. So it’s important to note that the Royals are 1-6 in Greinke’s last 7 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance. The Red Sox are 11-1 in Buchholz’s last 12 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Take Boston/Buchholz over KC/Greinke.

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MLB Pick 5-26-10

My MLB pick for 5-26-10 is:

St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres – 10:05 p.m. ET

Bet #963 St. Louis Cardinals -120 (Garcia & Correia MUST START)

The Cards lost the series opener last night 1-0 despite getting almost twice as many hits (7) as San Diego (4). I expect the Cards to even the series tonight. St. Louis has dominated San Diego in recent years. The Cardinals were 6-1 against the Padres in 2008 and 6-1 again in 2009. Let’s look at the starting pitchers.

Jaime Garcia will be on the bump for St. Louis and he has been “lights out” this season. Garcia owns a 1.28 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and .286 OBP overall. He has also been very solid on the road, sporting a 2.08 ERA in five road outings. What I also like is that only one of the main Padres hitters has faced Garcia. Chase Headley has a single in 2 AB’s and that’s IT for the team against Garcia. That is a HUGE edge for Garcia and the Cards.

Kevin Correia has given up 4 runs in 3 of his last 4 starts and he owns a 5.71 ERA over his last 3 trips to the mound. Some key Cardinals have had success against Correia. Albert Pujols owns a 1.038 OPS against him. Matt Holliday owns a .969 OPS against Correia. Colby Rasmus is 1-for-3 with a homer against him. Skip Schumaker is 3-for-7 with a double and a walk against Correia. I’ll be surprised if the Cardinals don’t score at least 4 runs tonight and that should be enough to get the job done.

Bottom line: The bullpens are both very good, but we have a clear edge in starting pitching with Garcia. Not only does Garcia have better numbers than Correia, but he also has the advantage of facing almost all Padres hitters for the first time while Correia has been torched by a few key Cardinals bats. Take St. Louis/Garcia over San Diego/Correia.

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Baseball Pick 5-25-10

 My baseball pick for 5-25-10 is:

Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles – 7:05 p.m. ET

Bet #919 Oakland Athletics -105 (Braden & Guthrie MUST START)

We have two starting pitchers who are both pitching very well lately. For me, this boils down to how these guys have fared when facing tonight’s opposing hitters. Dallas Braden has won both of his career starts at Baltimore and is 5-1 with a 1.57 ERA overall against the Orioles, who managed just three hits and two runs against Braden in seven innings of their 4-2 loss April 16th at Oakland.

Orioles hitters have struggled against Braden for the most part. Lead-off hitter Adam Jones is 0-for-11. Nick Markakis is 1-for-14. Matt Wieters and Miguel Tejada are both 1-for-5. Luke Scott is 1-for-8. Only Ty Wigginton has had succes, going 2-for-6 (.333) with a homer.

Several A’s hitters have had success against Guthrie. Rajai Davis is 3-for-8 (.375). Ryan Sweeney is 3-for-5 with a double and a triple. Kurt Suzuki is 5-for-10 with 2 doubles & a homer. Mark Ellis is 4-for-11 (.364).

Problems at the back of the bullpen continue to plague Baltimore, which is dealing with injuries to Alfredo Simon (hamstring) and Koji Uehara (elbow). Closer Michael Gonzalez (shoulder) remains on the disabled list. “It takes its toll on your bullpen,” manager Dave Trembley said. Perhaps Trembley leaves Guthrie in the game just a bit too long as a result? That would surely work in our favor.

Bottom line: Orioles hitters have mostly struggled against Braden, while A’s batters have been mostly productive against Guthrie. The A’s are rolling right now. Oakland pitchers have gone 20 straight innings without allowing a run, and the Athletics gave up a total of six hits in the final two games of their weekend sweep of the rival Giants. Braden’s success against the Orioles should keep that pitching roll going. Take Oakland/Braden over Baltimore/Guthrie.

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Baseball Pick 5-23-10

My baseball pick for 5-23-10 is:

Toronto Blue Jays at Arizona Diamondbacks – 4:10 p.m. ET

Bet #927 Toronto Blue Jays -127 (Marcum & Buckner MUST START)

This is simply a play ON Shaun Marcum and the potent Jays lineup and AGAINST Buckner and that horrible ‘Zona bullpen. Marcum has been “lights out” this season, sporting a 2.61 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and .256 OBP. He’s just as good on the road, earning a 2.60 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, and .217 OBP in four road starts this season. Marcum has also been extremely tough lately, posting a 1.66 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, and .207 OBP in his last three trips to the mound. Also, only ONE Arizona batter has ever faced Marcum (Tony Abreu is 2-for-5). That should give Marcum an even bigger edge today.

Arizona starter Billy Buckner is a relative unknown, so it may take the Jays hitters an AB to get a feel for this guy’s stuff. But even if the Jays’ potent lineup doesn’t catch up to Buckner right away, I don’t think you’ll see him go more than five innings. And that means the Jays hitters should get about FOUR innings at the plate against that awful ‘Zona bullpen. As if a 6.58 ERA and 1.58 WHIP aren’t bad enough for the season, they;ve actually been even worse lately. If you look at each D’backs reliever’s last three outings, they own a collective 7.07 ERA and 1.79 WHIP! Toronto’s potent lineup should have little trouble putting a couple runs across the plate late in the game.

Bottom line: With Toronto, we have the far better starting pitcher and the far better bullpen. Arizona may be hitting very well right now, but we also know the Jays can lay the lumber, too. I feel the only way we can lose this play is if Marcum is just plain “off” today, but he’s shown nothing to indicate that that would be the case. Take Toronto/Marcum over Arizona/Buckner.

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MLB Pick 5-22-10

My MLB pick for 5-22-10 is:

Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies – 7:10 p.m. ET

Bet #973-974 OVER 10.5 -115 (Matsuzaka & Kendrick MUST START)

No long write-up needed here. Citizens Bank Park is a hitter’s park and I expect some major offense tonight after only 6 runs being scored by these two good hitting teams last night. “Dice K” has been just plain terrible, especially on the road where he owns a 12.54 ERA, 2.36 WHIP, and .468 OBP. Kendrick has good numbers in his last three starts, but they came against Pittsburgh, Colorado, and St. Louis — all teams that are middle of the pack or worse in hitting and run production. Kendrick will struggle against this Boston lineup. Both teams have MANY hitters who have had success in limited AB’s against the opposing starter. There have been an average of 16.25 runs scored in Dice K’s starts this season. There have been an average of 11.88 runs scored in Kendrick’s starts this season. Put these two against each other and these lineups at Citizens Bank Park and this game should fly OVER 10.5 runs.

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