NCAA Basketball Championship Pick 4-5-10
April 5, 2010 by Dwayne Bryant · Leave a Comment
My NCAA basketball pick for the National Championship game on 4-5-10 is:
Butler vs. Duke – 9:15 p.m. ET on CBS
Bet #601 Butler +7.5
This is just one of those games that looks too easy. It looks way too easy to back Duke tonight. The Blue Devils just beat the snot out of a pretty damn good West Virginia team in the Final Four (we did have Duke in that one) and they’ve pretty much blown out every team they’ve faced in this tournament except Baylor. Butler has been squeaking by with several close wins in this tourney, including a 2-point win over Michigan State in the Final Four matchup. Now Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard are banged up for the Bulldogs, so everyone is lining up to bet on Duke. Not me. Since we flat bet and this is just ONE game, I’ll take my chances with Butler.
Playing just SIX miles from their campus, this is pretty much a home game for Butler. The Bulldogs haven’t lost a home game all season and they’ve now rattled off 25 straight wins. Even if you count this as a neutral site game, Butler has only lost FOUR games all season with three of those four losses coming on a neutral court. Of those three neutral court losses, only ONE came by more than this spread (a 9-point loss to Minnesota in their fourth game of the season). The other neutral court losses were by one point to Clemson and by seven to Georgetown. Duke will most likely be cutting down the nets tonight, but this championship game should be closer than most people think. I’ll grab the points with Butler tonight.
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Final Four pick 4-3-10
April 3, 2010 by Dwayne Bryant · Leave a Comment
My Final Four pick for 4-3-10 is:
West Virginia vs. Duke – 8:45 p.m. ET on CBS
Bet #822 Duke -2
Looking at the stats and efficiency ratings of both teams, I have to side with Duke tonight. I realize West Virginia may be the popular pick because they’re coming off the upset win over Kentucky, but Duke is a much more experienced team than the Wildcats and it will show when it truly matters tonight.
Out of 347 Division I teams, Duke is ranked #1 in offensive efficiency and #3 in defensive efficiency according to Pomeroy; West Virginia is ranked #12 and #10, respectively. Duke is ranked #15 in offensive turnover percentage and #97 in defensive turnover percentage; WVU is ranked #68 and #139, respectively. Bottom line: Duke should win the turnover battle, which could go a long way in deciding this one.
The rebounding numbers are very similar. Duke ranks #7 in offensive rebounding and #141 in defensive rebounding; WVU ranks #2 and #124, respectively. Those numbers indicate that the battle on the glass should be about even, with both teams getting plenty of second chances. However, I give a slight edge on the boards to Duke based on their effective height rating of +4.9 (#7 in the nation), as compared to + .9 for West Virginia.
As good as the Mountaineers have looked on the defensive end, Duke is even better. The Blue Devils are ranked #39 in 2-point shooting percentage allowed and #1 in 3-point shooting percentage allowed. The Mountaineers are ranked #94 and #56, respectively.
Another aspect that could come into play, especially late in the game, is free throw shooting. Duke also holds the edge in this area, as they shot 76.1% from the charity stripe this season (#8 in the nation). West Virginia shot 70.3% from the free throw line; good enough for #129 in the country.
Bottom line: Duke seemingly has at least a slight edge in practically every area of this game. Those slight edges could very well add up to a decent margin. I see the Blue Devils advancing to the National Championship game with a seven-point win tonight. Lay the small number with Duke.
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March Madness Pick 3-28-10
March 28, 2010 by Dwayne Bryant · Leave a Comment
My March Madness pick for 3/28/10 is:
Baylor vs. Duke – 5:05 p.m. ET on CBS
Bet UNDER 139
The first thing that caught my eye in this one is the pace at which these teams play. Out of 347 Division I teams, Duke ranks #227 in tempo according to Pomeroy, while the Bears rank #238. The next thing that made me take the UNDER was looking at the scores of the games these two have played so far in this tournament. Average total points in Baylor’s three games: 130.7; Average total points in Duke’s three games: 121.7. Both teams are playing stellar defense in The Big Dance. Baylor is allowing 58.7 points per game on 37% shooting, while Duke is allowing 51.3 points per game on 36% shooting. Expect more slower pace and more solid D in this one. I have this total ending up somewhere between 132 and 135, so I’ll gladly take the UNDER.
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March Madness Pick 3-27-10
March 27, 2010 by Dwayne Bryant · Leave a Comment
My March Madness pick for 3-27-10 is:
West Virginia vs. Kentucky – 7:05 p.m. ET on CBS
Bet UNDER 133
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March Madness Pick 3-26-10
March 26, 2010 by Dwayne Bryant · Leave a Comment
My March Madness pick for 3-26-10 is:
Northern Iowa vs. Michigan State – 9:35 p.m. ET on CBS
Bet #873 Northern Iowa +1
Cinderella is a Panther this year. Northern Iowa is proving that they are for real. Any time you can beat Kansas while getting outrebounded AND shooting just 40% from the field, you must be a pretty solid team. The win over the Jayhawks only adds to UNI’s confidence and they now expect to beat everyone put in their path. Tonight, it’s the Spartans minus Kalin Lucas. Lucas ruptured an Achilles tendon in the first of Michigan State’s win over Maryland. They were lucky to win that game and they will sorely miss Lucas’ 14.8 points and leadership tonight.
Northern Iowa ranks 54th in offensive turnover percentage and 162nd in defensive turnover percentage; The Spartans rank 221st and 254th, respectively. The Panthers are also 7th in the nation in free throw percentage at 76.1% (Spartans hit 68.4%). Those extra possessions and points from the charity stripe are especially huge in a very slow paced game like this one figures to be. In what should be a close game, I see the Panthers winning by a bucket. Take Northern Iowa.
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