NCAA Basketball Pick 3-23-10
March 23, 2010 by Dwayne Bryant · Leave a Comment
My NCAA basketball pick for 3-23-10 is:
North Carolina at UAB – 9:00 p.m. ET
Bet #662 UAB -4.5
The public will back North Carolina here due to name recognition alone, but they’re not the better team in this contest. UNC is coming off a road win at Mississippi State, but the Bulldogs were a team that was emotionally flat after being snubbed by the NCAA Selection Committee. The Blazers are anything but flat.
UAB is coming off a 20-point win over NC State (we had the Blazers in that one). Now they have their sights set on the Tar Heels, and this is where UNC’s name recognition comes back to bite them. UAB would love nothing more than to lay a beating on the storied North Carolina program; the same UNC program that won the National Championship last season.
UAB is 15-3 at home this season, while UNC comes in at just 3-8 on the road. The Tar Heels are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog, and 0-8 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less.
UAB simply has all the edges I look for, such as defensive efficiency, 2-point shooting percentage allowed, defensive rebound percentage, turnovers, and free throw shooting. Even slight edges in each of those categories can often lead to a big win. I have the Blazers winning this one by 8, so I’ll gladly lay the number with UAB.
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College Basketball Pick 3-22-10
March 22, 2010 by Dwayne Bryant · Leave a Comment
My college basketball pick for 3-22-10 is:
Nevada at Rhode Island – 6:00 p.m. ET
Bet #622 Rhode Island -8
Nothing stood out to me from a situational standpoint today, so I’m following the wiseguys here. At the time of this writing, 76% of about 14,000 reported bets are on Nevada, yet the line has moved from Rhode Island -7 to -8 and even -8.5 at some places. It’s obvious the “sharps” have put a bundle on the Rams. I’ve had good success following the “smart money,” so I have no problem doing just that tonight. Lay it with Rhode Island.
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March Madness Pick 3-21-10
March 21, 2010 by Dwayne Bryant · Leave a Comment
My March Madness pick for 3-21-10 is:
Cornell vs. Wisconsin – 2:50 p.m. ET
Bet #720 Wisconsin -4.5
Cornell sure is getting a lot of love and attention from the media outlets. The darlings of the Ivy League have had a great season at 28-4, but I think their run comes to an end today. For personal reasons, I need to be brief here, so I’m going to summarize what I see (long-term clients: you know how I look at these games). Wisconsin simply has all the edges I look for (defensive efficiency, turnovers, defensive rebound percentage, and 2-point shooting percentage allowed). Cornell likes to shoot 3′s, but the Badgers are capable of defending it.
76% of over 30,000 reported bets are on Cornell. I think the public is over-reacting to Cornell’s beatdown of Temple and Wisconsin’s struggle against Wofford. Cornell has shot over 50% from the field in four straight games. That will obviously not go on forever and Wisconsin has the D to end that streak. The Badgers have shot just 32.5% from the field in their last two games, but those were against teams that rank in the top 50 in defensive efficiency; Cornell ranks 138th. I see an 8 to 10-point win for the Badgers, so I’ll lay it with Wisconsin.
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NCAA Basketball Pick 3-20-10
March 20, 2010 by Dwayne Bryant · Leave a Comment
My NCAA basketball pick for 3-20-10 is:
NC State at UAB – 5:00 p.m. ET
Bet #534 UAB -5
Most people will be looking to bet on the NCAA Tournament today, but my money is on this Second Round NIT matchup. NC State got here by scoring an upset road win at South Florida, but keep in mind that the Wolfpack was just 4-7 on the road prior to that upset. UAB is 14-3 at home and they have several key edges in this game.
The Blazers are the better defensive team in this matchup. They rank 27th out of 347 Division I teams in defensive efficiency; NC State ranks 39th. Now that’s not that much of a difference, but what I like specifically is UAB’s 2-point shooting percentage defense, which ranks 48th (NC State is 105th).
UAB should also win the turnover battle. The teams are about even in offensive turnover percentage, but the Blazers are ranked 95th in defensive turnover percentage while the Wolfpack are ranked 201st.
Of all the aspects of this game, the biggest edge (and the one I think leads UAB to a win and cover) is on the boards. NC State ranks 176th in offensive rebound percentage and 231st in defensive rebound percentage. UAB ranks 70th in offensive rebound percentage and 22nd in defensive rebound percentage.
Bottom line: NC State should not get many second chances while UAB should get quite a few. Those extra chances, combined with winning the turnover battle and playing better defense, should help the Blazers get a margin. Lay the points with UAB.
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NCAA Basketball Tournament Pick 3-19-10
March 19, 2010 by Dwayne Bryant · Leave a Comment
My second of two NCAA basketball tournament picks for 3-19-10 is:
Houston vs. Maryland – 9:50 p.m. ET
Bet #850 Maryland -9.5
There are so many reasons why Maryland should blow out Houston in this one that I don’t even know where to begin. Let’s start with motivation. Maryland got upset in the first round of the ACC Tournament, so they should be in a foul mood and ready to take some frustrations out on this opponent.
On the flip side, Houston was just 15-15 heading into the Conference USA Tournament. Their only chance to make the Big Dance was to shock everyone and win the conference tournament. The Cougars upset Memphis in Round 2 and then stunned top-seeded Texas-El Paso to complete the miracle. There’s no doubt in my mind that Houston is feeling like they already accomplished their goal just by making the field. I don’t see Houston matching Maryland’s intensity in this one.
The key areas I generally look at are offensive & defensive efficiency, , and rebounding. Maryland ranks 6th in offensive efficiency; Houston ranks 38th. Maryland ranks 38th in defensive efficiency; Houston ranks 168th. Maryland ranks 9th in 2-point shooting percentage allowed; Houston ranks 313th. Maryland ranks 78th in offensive rebound percentage; Houston ranks 232nd. Maryland may stink at defensive rebound percentage (313th), but Houston is even worse (336th).
Bottom line: Maryland is clearly the more talented team. And when the more talented team is also the more motivated team, things tend to get ugly. I have the Terrapins winning this one by a MINIMUM of 14 points, so I’ll lay the number with Maryland.
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