College Football Bowl Pick 1-4-2010

My college football bowl pick for 1-4-2010 is:

Fiesta Bowl – Boise State vs. TCU – 8:10 p.m. ET on FOX

Bet: UNDER 53.5

NOTE: Bet this NOW because I believe the line will continue to drop.

At first glance, it would be easy to take the Over in this matchup. We have a Boise State offense averaging 44.2 points per game, with QB Kellen Moore tossing 39 TDs and just 3 INTs. And we also have a TCU offense averaging 40.7 points per game. But that only tells half the story.

As potent as those offenses are, I believe it’s the defenses that will tell the story in this one. Boise State’s defense allows just 17.7 points and 299.6 yards per game. Their yards per point on defense is a very solid 16.7. TCU’s defense is even better. The Horned Frogs allow just 12.4 points and 233.2 yards per game, with a yards per point of 19.5.

These two met in last year’s Poinsettia Bowl and TCU prevailed, 17-16. Boise State only played one top caliber team this season and that was their opener against Oregon (another explosive offense). That game ended with 27 total points scored. TCU’s only road games against decent opponents were at Clemson (24 total points scored), Air Force (37), and BYU (45).

Bottom line: I don’t expect much to be different from last year’s bowl clash. I expect this game to end with a total between 41 and 45. Go UNDER.

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NCAA Football Bowl Pick 1-2-2010

My only NCAA football bowl pick for 1-2-2010 is:

Liberty Bowl – Arkansas vs. East Carolina – 5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN

Bet: #258 East Carolina +7.5

 It’s common knowledge that the SEC is the strongest conference in college football, so Arkansas has immediate credibility in this contest against a Conference USA school. But this isn’t about which team or conference I think is better. This is about where I feel the line value lies. And in this matchup with a spread of more than a TD, I feel strongly that the value is with East Carolina.

I went with the better defensive team yesterday with Ohio State over Oregon & their explosive offense. That turned out to be an easy winner. And I’m backing the better defensive team again today. Yes, Arkansas’ passing offense is ranked 10th in the nation, but don’t think for a minute that East Carolina can’t hang with them.

The Pirates have already faced the nation’s #1 passing attack, Houston. And while Houston got more than their fair share of yards & points, ECU still came out with a 38-32 win. The reason: Houston cannot play defense, and Arkansas’ D isn’t much better. Arkansas’ D allows over 400 yards per game, and they rank 100th in passing efficiency defense. That will make it tough to get any kind of margin here. The Pirates o-line allowed only 11 sacks in 13 games (8th in the nation), so 6th-year senior QB Patrick Pinkney should have time to pick apart that swiss-cheese pass D of Arkansas.

Bottom line: I’ll almost always take the better defensive team in big games, especially when getting points. And while ECU’s D is nothing special, Arkansas’ D is just plain horrible. A team that gives up over 400 yards should not be laying more than a TD against another bowl team. I truly expect Skip Holtz’s boys to be able to hang here. Take the points with East Carolina.

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College Football Bowl Pick 1-1-2010

Happy New Year! My only college football bowl pick for 1-1-2010 is:

Rose Bowl – Ohio State vs. Oregon – 5:00 p.m. ET on ABC

Bet: #247 Ohio State +4.5

 Everyone knows that Oregon owns the explosive offense in this matchup, and Ohio State owns the dominant defense. I will always be inclined to back the better defensive team, especially when getting points. But I looked at this game in detail, examining every statistical area. Many were very close, with each team holding a slight edge in their fair share of areas. But there were a few areas where one team showed to be superior.

For starters, I always like to look at yards per point (ypp), which is a great indicator of each unit’s efficiency. Oregon’s explosive offense came in at 11.3 ypp. But the Ohio State offense came in at 12.5, meaning the Buckeyes’ offense is only slightly less efficient than the Ducks’ unit. Ohio State’s offense gets overlooked because their D is so dominant, but that offense averages 29.25 points per game (not too shabby).

What really sets these teams apart is not Oregon’s offense, but rather Ohio State’s defense. While Oregon’s defense comes in at 14 ypp, the Ohio State D comes in at a whopping 21.6 ypp. That means Oregon will have to do a lot more to score the same amount of points as Ohio State.

Ohio State is also more likely to win the turnover battle, which will be crucial in this game (as it is in most). The Buckeyes are #4 in the nation with a +16 turnover margin, including 17th with only seven fumbles lost. Oregon ranks 47th at just +3, including 108th with 15 lost fumbles.

Penalties can also be a huge factor in a game. That hidden yardage can be a killer. Ohio State ranks 20th in the nation with just 43.5 penalty yards per game, while the Ducks rank 100th with 63 penalty yards per contest.

I also like to look at how each team performed on the road during the season. Oregon was 2-3 ATS and outscored their opponents by 4.2 points per game, but they were actually outgained by 2.6 yards per contest. Ohio State was 3-1 ATS, while outscoring their opponents by 9.8 points per game AND outgaining them by 59.2 yards per contest.

Bottom line: Oregon’s offense gets all the press, but this Ohio State defense will be the best defense the Ducks have faced this year. I also like Ohio State’s big-game experience, as this class has been in a BCS game every year, while this Oregon class is playing in their first BCS game (school hasn’t been in a BCS bowl since 2001). This will be this Buckeyes class’ last chance to get a BCS bowl win, and I think they finally get it done. I’m calling it Ohio State 27, Oregon 24. Grab the points with Ohio State.

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College Football Bowl Pick 12-31-09

My only college football bowl pick for 12-31-09 is:

Chick Fil-A Bowl – Tennessee vs. Virginia Tech – 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN

Bet: #239 Tennessee +6

 This simply boils down to the fact that I think we’re getting some good value on Tennessee here. The Vols may only bring a 7-5 record into this one, but I’d be willing to bet they’d be at least a 9-3 team in the ACC. When I look at how each team did against bowl opponents this season, I see Virginia Tech at 3-4-1 ATS and +52 yards per game, and Tennessee at 5-4 ATS and +20 yards per game. Pretty similar.

Virginia Tech’s defense is very solid, ranked 14th in the nation, allowing 300.08 yards per game on 4.63 yards per play. But Tennessee’s D is every bit as good. The Vols defense is ranked 18th in the nation, allowing 308.83 yards per game on 4.71 yards per play. And the Vols accomplished that against some very tough SEC competition. Back to the VT defense: while still very good, they’re not as dominant in the trenches as they have been in years past. And Tennessee’s o-line has only allowed 12 sacks all year in the tough SEC.

Looking at the second half of each team’s season, I see the Hokies winning their last four games by double digits, but they were also favored by double digits in each contest. They were beaten by two bowl teams (North Carolina and Georgia Tech) in the two games prior. Tennessee did get spanked by Ole Miss, but they also beat bowl teams Kentucky and South Carolina. And let’s not forget that Tennessee went into Tuscaloosa and fell just short against #1 Alabama, 12-10, in a game they really should’ve won. That shows me that this Tennessee team can hang with anyone on any given day.

In fact, the one common opponent I see for these two teams is #1 Alabama. Tennessee played them on the road and lost by 2, while Virginia Tech played them on a neutral field and lost by 10. But let’s look even deeper. Tennessee actually outgained Alabama 341-256, while Virginia Tech got outgained 498-155!

Motivation is also a key factor in handicapping bowl games. I have to believe that edge goes to Tennessee. At 7-5 and with first-year coach Lane Kiffin, the Vols have to be thrilled to be playing in a primetime bowl game. I doubt the Hokies share the same enthusiasm. VT had national title aspirations coming into the season. And not only were those dreams shattered early, but they’re not even in a BCS bowl. Heck, they didn’t even land a New Year’s Day bowl invitation! This has to be a huge disappointment for Virginia Tech.

Bottom line: These two teams are SO close in talent, that the points are the only play here. It very well could come down to a FG. And I always love getting points with an SEC team playing with a motivational edge against a non-conference opponent. Grab the points with Tennessee.

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NCAA Football Bowl Pick 12-30-09

My NCAA football bowl pick for 12-30-09 is:

Holiday Bowl – Nebraska vs. Arizona – 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN

Bet: #231 Nebraska -2.5

 Note: There are a few -2.5 out there. If your outs have -3, then I suggest buying the half-point down to -2.5 if you can. Three is just such a HUGE key number in football games, so we always want to get -2.5 or +3.5 whenever possible.

Anytime I can get the most dominant player on the field and the most dominant unit on the field and only have to win by a FG, I’m almost always going to jump all over that. Such is the case in this Holiday Bowl matchup with Nebraska’s defense, led by DT Ndamukong Suh. The 6-foot-4, 300-pound defensive tackle finished fourth in the Heisman Trophy voting, took home four other prestigious awards and was a unanimous first-team All-American. Suh, leading the Huskers with 82 tackles, 12 sacks and 23 tackles for loss, put on his best performance in the Big 12 title game against Texas. Facing a barrage of double-team blocks, Suh matched a career high with 12 tackles – nine for zero or negative yards – and had 4 1/2 sacks. The guy is a game-changer all by himself.

But let’s not forget that this Huskers defense as a whole is ranked 9th in the nation in yards allowed (284.54 yards per game), 2nd in points allowed (11.23 points per game), 3rd in sacks per game (3.23), and 3rd in pass efficiency defense. In the Big 12 title game against Texas, this Huskers D allowed that potent Texas offense just 13 points and 202 total yards! To further illustrate just how impressive this Nebraska D is: They faced six bowl teams this season and held them to an average of 14 points and 254.7 total yards of offense per game!

Now I know Arizona’s defense is pretty good too, but they’re not in Nebraska’s league. A strong indicator of offensive and defensive strength is yards per point (ypp). Arizona’s D has a ypp of about 13 (not very good). Nebraska’s offense has a ypp of 13, so as bad as everyone thinks the Huskers offense is, they should have enough success to get the job done, especially with that D giving them good field position throughout the game. Arizona’s offense has a ypp of about 14, but that Nebraska D has a defensive ypp of 25! Can you say DOMINANT? Arizona QB Nick Foles has played well and so has their o-line, but they have not seen this type of pass rush this season. And Foles isn’t shifty enough to elude that Huskers pass rush.

So in a game like this, where defense should rule, it would figure that the kickers would be very important. Nebraska’s Alex Henery has made 20 of his 24 FG attempts this season (83.3%), and three of those four misses were from 50 yards and longer. So he’s basically automatic from inside 50 yards. Arizona’s Alex Zendejas (yes, another from the Zendejas family of kickers) made 17 of his 22 FG attempts this season (77.3%). That’s not bad either, but the problem is that Zendejas had two misses from 20-29 yards and two more misses from 30-39 yards. To further put this in perspective: Henery’s average miss came from 49.5 yards, while Zendejas’ average miss came from 32.6 yards! So in this game where kickers could play a very vital role, Nebraska has the clear edge.

Bottom line: We’re getting the most dominant player in the game on by far the most dominant unit in the game, and we only need to win by a FG. Lay it with Nebraska.

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