Handicapper Dwayne Bryant’s Message for 9-13-10

RECAP

Took a split on Sunday.  Lost with Carolina in disappointing fashion, as this dog (+6) actually led 16-14 at the half.  Problem is, they didn’t show up in the second half and the Giants made ‘em pay. The backdoor was open, but Carolina couldn’t take advantage.  We had a shot, but Matt Moore throwing TWO interceptions IN THE END ZONE was just too much to overcome.

We salvaged the split when the Steelers beat Atlanta in OT, 12-9.  Truth be told, this game shouldn’t have gone to OT.  Steelers kicker Jeff Reed missed what would’ve been a game-winning 40-yard FG with seconds left.  Reed doesn’t miss very often, especially at home and at THAT distance.  But Rashard Mendenhall sprinted 50 yards for the game-winning TD on the Steelers’ first play from scrimmage in OT (that helped one of my fantasy teams, too).

So, we had a very nice 4-1 (80% and +5.8 Units) weekend in football (Friday through Sunday).  Let’s put a HUGE cherry on top of that solid weekend.

MONDAY’S BUSINESS — FIRST 3-UNIT PLAY of 2010

Our FIRST 3-Unit play of the ENTIRE CALENDAR YEAR goes on Monday Night Football.  THANK YOU in advance to those who choose to join us.

CLOSING

As always, I’d like to say a sincere THANK YOU to my long-term clients.  Your continued support, trust and loyalty are greatly appreciated.  I never take you for granted and I will always work hard to provide you with long-term winning service.

DAILY REMINDER #1: Please use proper money management.  Whether you flat bet my plays or play them according to the Unit ratings, PLEASE bet within your means.

DAILY REMINDER #2: Unless otherwise stated, my daily card is FINAL at 5 p.m. Eastern Monday through Friday and Noon Eastern on Saturdays and Sundays.

DAILY REMINDER #3: PLEASE take a moment to tell your loved ones that you love them.  Take a moment to kiss your spouse/significant other, hug your children, call your parents, etc.  Those things are so much more important than betting on any sporting event, and you never know when it will be the last time you see them.

God bless and best of luck.

DB

Handicapper Dwayne Bryant’s Message 9-12-10

RECAP

I knew we could not continue to have the unbelievably bad luck that plagued us in Week 1 of the college football season. After SO MANY brutal beats, things had to start going our way this weekend.  And they did.  We followed Friday’s easy winner on Houston with two more 2-Unit winners on Saturday — Michigan (+3.5), an outright 28-24 winner over Notre Dame, and Texas A&M (-19.5), an easy 48-16 winner over Louisiana Tech.

• 3-0 +6 Units in college football this weekend
• 4-0 +4 Units on our last 4 NFL plays
• 6-3 (67%) in the NFL so far this season

I’m feelin’ it.  REALLY feelin’ it.  And we’re not done yet.  There are some NFL Units just waiting to be won on Sunday.

TODAY’S BUSINESS — 4 UNITS OF NFL PROFIT

I have TWO 2-UNIT NFL picks available right now.  THANK YOU in advance to those who choose to join us.

CLOSING

As always, I’d like to say a sincere THANK YOU to my long-term clients.  Your continued support, trust and loyalty are greatly appreciated.  I never take you for granted and I will always work hard to provide you with long-term winning service.

DAILY REMINDER #1: Please use proper money management.  Whether you flat bet my plays or play them according to the Unit ratings, PLEASE bet within your means.

DAILY REMINDER #2: Unless otherwise stated, my daily card is FINAL at 5 p.m. Eastern Monday through Friday and Noon Eastern on Saturdays and Sundays.

DAILY REMINDER #3: PLEASE take a moment to tell your loved ones that you love them.  Take a moment to kiss your spouse/significant other, hug your children, call your parents, etc.  Those things are so much more important than betting on any sporting event, and you never know when it will be the last time you see them.

God bless and best of luck.

DB

Super Bowl XLIV Pick 2-7-10

My Super Bowl XLIV pick for 2-7-10 is:

Super Bowl XLIV – New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts – 6:25 p.m. ET on CBS

Bet: UNDER 57

NOTE: I recommend waiting to make this bet, as I expect the public to drive this line even higher as we get closer to kickoff.

NOTE #2: Remember, the Super Bowl is just ONE game. I always recommend betting the same amount on each play and this game is no different. Please keep that in mind as you place your wagers for this one.

 

ANALYSIS: I studied this game for days and from every conceivable angle. I would’ve preferred to have played a side, but I can see this game ending too many ways. It’s my opinion that the best value play on this game is on the UNDER.

It’s easy to see why the public likes the Over. We have two pass-happy teams led by two of the best QBs in the game today — Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. And we’ve seen some pretty high-scoring games lately, which definitely influences the public. We saw Arizona and Green Bay combine for 96 points. We also saw Arizona and New Orleans combine for 59 points. And we saw Minnesota and New Orleans combine for 59 points. So this line is inflated due to public perception.

This is essentially a road game for both teams, so I like to look at how these teams performed on the road this season. Saints road games averaged a total of 53 points, while Colts road games averaged a total of just 47 points. Both defenses did their part on the road, as the Saints allowed 21 points per game, while the Colts allowed just 19 points per game.

Despite having offenses that are very well-known for their passing prowess, I expect to see plenty of each team’s running game. And with a total this high, we only need a couple drives to end with a FG to keep this Under the total. Surprisingly, the Colts have had quite a few drives end in FGs this season, and I look for that to continue. And the Colts have been more of a drive-oriented offense than a quick-strike offense this season. I also expect the Colts speedy defense to step up, avoid giving up the big play, and make the Saints earn every point.

Bottom line: I think this game starts slowly, as each team tries to shake off the nerves and get a feel for what the other side will try to do. Like I said, it’s only going to take a couple of drives ending in FGs (or better yet, missed FGs) for this game to stay Under the total.

The first quarter will go a long way in determining where this total ends up. 14 points or more in the first quarter and I think we’re in trouble. But like I said, I expect a slow start. I see this game ending with about 47 to 52 points, so take the UNDER.

PROP BETS (just small action for me to add to the excitement & enjoyment)

1. #126 No team 3 straight scores +150
2. #2041 A FG made under 24? yards +110
3. #2060 IND makes longest FG -115
4. #2119 Any punt results in a touchback -130
5. #2143 NOR longest punt return -110

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NFL Football Pick 1-24-10

My NFL football pick for 1-24-10 is:

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints – 6:40 p.m. ET on FOX

Bet: #304 New Orleans Saints -3.5

 NOTE: Buy the half-point down to -3. If you wait and can get -3, buy the half-point down to -2.5.

The last thing most people remember from last weekend’s playoff action is the Vikings absolutely pounding the Cowboys (34-3), who were the hottest team in the NFC at the time. Minnesota also pummeled Tony Romo in that game, so Minny’s pass rush really stood out. As a result, many people will line up to grab the points with Brett Favre and the Vikings. I disagree.

One big difference between the Vikings-Dallas game and this one is that the Vikes are now on the road. As much as the crowd noise helped them in the Metrodome last weekend, that same ear-splitting noise will be their enemy today in the Superdome. The Vikings were just 4-4 on the road this season, and those four wins came against Cleveland, Detroit, St. Louis, and Green Bay (who they know well). Their only road game against a playoff team who they do not know well was in Arizona, and the Cardinals pounded the Vikings, 30-17 (and the game wasn’t even that close).

The Cowboys made the Vikings pass rush look unworldly, especially after LT Flozell Adams left the game with an injury. The Williams boys and Ray Edwards will all play, but none of them are 100%. And one big difference that we should see in this one is the difference between Tony Romo and Drew Brees. Romo is much more likely to hold the ball and scramble around trying to make a play. Brees, however, has one of the quickest releases in the league and he’s excellent at finding the opening receiver before the pass rush can get to him.

Dallas had open receivers running all over the field last weekend, but Romo had no time to find them. The Saints line is intact and should give Brees enough time to get the job done. And I KNOW Saints head coach Sean Payton will do a MUCH better job than Dallas offensive coordinator Jason Garrett at making any necessary adjustments should that Vikings pass rush start to roll.

Bottom line: The public is making too much of last week’s Vikings win over Dallas. Minnesota is a mediocre road team, and the Superdome noise certainly won’t help. The Saints defense is as healthy as it’s been since early in the season, and I expect Brees and company to exploit the Minnesota secondary. Take New Orleans.

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NFL Playoff Pick 1-17-10

My NFL playoff pick for 1-17-10 is:

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings – 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX

Bet: UNDER 45.5

This line opened at 48 and was immediately bet down. It’s obvious where the “smart money” is on this total, and I happen to agree. Many people will look at how explosive these two offenses can be, with names like Tony Romo, Miles Austin, Felix Jones, Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice, etc. But it’s defense that usually wins these playoff games and we have two pretty good ones going today.

The Cowboys defense has to be the hottest defense in the league right now. They held the potent Eagles offense to 14 points in those recent back-to-back meetings, and one of those TDs came in “garbage time.” They also went into the Superdome and held the Saints’ explosive offense to just 17 points. In fact, Dallas has held NINE of their last 11 opponents to 17 points or less. Yes, Minnesota has scored a ton of points at home, but most of that has come against some pretty poor defenses (Detroit, Seattle, Chicago, Giants). Dallas can stop the run with NT Jay Ratliff plugging up the middle. And the Dallas pass defense has been destroying people in large part due to a fierce pass rush led by DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer, etc.

The Vikings defense is well-known for stopping the run, but pass D has been an issue. That alone has many people on the Over here. And while Dallas’ offensive line is one of the best, they are also prone to false start penalties. That could be a huge problem in what will be a VERY loud Metrodome. Remember, Dallas LT Flozell Adams has always had a hearing problem, and that could come into play here. I expect plenty of false start penalties on the Dallas o-line, and those are drive killers. That’ll put Dallas in long-yardage situations and allow Jared Allen & company to put the heat on Romo. Minny’s D has held their last five home opponents to 10 points or less, so the D definitely feeds off the home crowd.

The only reason that crowd noise didn’t come into play when Dallas visited the Superdome is because Dallas scored a quick TD to get up 7-0. They then went up 14-0 and took the crowd completely out of the game. If they don’t do the same here, the crowd will be in it from the get-go and it will affect the Dallas offense.

Bottom line: These two defenses get overlooked by many because the offenses have been so good, and the public likes to play Over the total. But these two defenses have been extremely tough. Dallas’ D has been rolling for months and they’ve taken it up a notch in recent weeks. And the Vikings’ D has been very tough at home with the crowd behind them. I expect a final in the 37-41 total point range. And at this number, we have the key numbers of 43, 44, and 45 covered. Go UNDER.

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