NFL Playoff Pick 1-16-10

My NFL playoff pick for 1-16-10 is:

Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints – 4:30 p.m. ET on FOX

Bet: #110 New Orleans Saints -6.5 (-115)

 Note: I waited as long as I possibly could because I thought the public action on Arizona would give us -6.5 -110. That hasn’t happened, so buy the half-point down to -6.5 if you can.

The public is all over Arizona after watching them put up 51 points in beating the Packers last weekend. The public had Green Bay in that game, so they are now swayed into liking Arizona. But that game was in the desert. Now the Cardinals have to visit the Superdome, which figures to be ear drum-splitting loud for this game. Something else that gets overlooked is the fact that Arizona’s defense gave up 45 points to Aaron Rodgers and company. So you can bet Drew Brees and that Saints passing game will also carve up that Arizona D.

No team needed the bye week like the Saints. Not only have they had two weeks to prepare for this one while ‘Zona is coming in off a short week (played late Sunday night), but they needed to get some guys healthy. The Saints D was playing well before injuries started taking their toll, especially in the secondary. But they got healthy with the time off, which should show dividends today.

Bottom line: Both teams can sling it with top QBs, but I think the Saints D gives them an edge. Arizona’s D is in disarray, as is evident by last weekend’s showing. And being home in the dome will be a HUGE plus for the Saints. The extra rest and prep time will also be a huge edge for the Saints. Take New Orleans.

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NFL Football Playoff Pick 1-10-10

My NFL playoff pick for 1-10-10 is:

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals – 4:40 p.m. ET on FOX

Bet: Arizona Cardinals +3

 NOTE: If your book has Arizona +2.5, then buy the half-point up to +3. And if by some chance Arizona is +3, buy the half-point up to +3.5.

This reminds me so much of last night’s Eagles-Cowboys game. Seemed like the world was on the Eagles because they couldn’t possibly lose two weeks in a row to Dallas. We had the right side in that game & I feel we have the right side in this one as well. The public saw both rematches yesterday end the same way as the Week 17 games. So public perception is that the Packers will complete the trifecta and once again beat the Cardinals. I disagree, and here’s why.

That game last week meant absolutely nothing to Arizona. They saw Minnesota win & lock up the #2 seed, so coach Whisenhunt only kept his starting defense in for one series, and Kurt Warner threw just six passes before exiting. On the flip side, Packers coach Mike McCarthy chose to keep his starters in for a majority of the game. So having a lopsided result is not at all surprising. And that lopsided result gives us great value today. The Cardinals opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but the Packers are now the 2.5-point favorite.

With Anquan Boldin not likely to play, even more people will line up to back the Pack. But Arizona has so many weapons to go with Larry Fitzgerald, such as Steve Breaston and Early Doucet in the passing game, and Beanie Wells has been a beast running the football. Kurt Warner is so good at getting rid of the football before the pressure gets to him, and he’s very good at seeing where the blitz is coming from and hitting his hot read. Not taking anything away from Aaron Rodgers, who had a great season. But this is playoff football and he’s making his first start. He did not really see the Arizona pass rush last week because they only played one series, but he’ll get to know them really well today. And that Packers o-line has been known to give up sacks in bunches.

The Cardinals have the playoff experience, and they love being the underdog. They’ve covered NINE straight as a dog. Arizona may not have been great at home this season, but they did hammer the Vikings just a few weeks ago. And while the Packers have been on quite a roll, it should be noted that they do NOT own a quality road win this season. Throw out last week’s win over the Cardinals’ B-team, and the Packers’ road wins this season came against the Rams, Browns, Lions, and Bears.

And if this game comes down to a FG, I’ll take Neil Rackers over Mason Crosby, who has been very shaky this season.

Bottom line: While the public is enamored with Green Bay, the value lies with the home team with the playoff experience who likes to be the dog. The Pack won’t get the luxury of playing against backups this week, and their lack of true road success and playoff experience will show in the end. Take Arizona.

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NFL Football Pick 1-9-2010

My NFL pick for 1-9-2010 is:

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys – 8:00 p.m. ET on NBC

Bet: Dallas Cowboys -3.5

 NOTE: I recommend waiting as long as you can to bet this. If the line stays at -3.5, then buy the half-point down to -3. And if the line moves to -3, then buy the half-point down to -2.5.

Seems like everybody and their brother is on the Eagles tonight. This game has public perception written all over it. The public perception is that the Cowboys will not be able to beat the Eagles two weeks in a row, or three straight times in the same season. But let’s just look at the facts.

There have been 19 instances where a team has met a division rival in the playoffs with a chance to beat them for the third straight time that season. Despite the public perception that it’s difficult to complete the “three-peat,” teams in this role have won 12 of those 19 meetings (63%). But that’s just the beginning. While I don’t expect another blowout, I expect the end result to be the same. Here’s why.

Games are won and lost in the trenches, and I see Dallas as having the edge along both lines. The Eagles have problems along their offensive line, and that was evident last week against these Cowboys. Right guard Nick Cole had to move over and play center in place of the injured Jamaal Jackson. The Cowboys pass rush is playing at peak performance right now, and the defense as a whole is peaking at just the right time. They’ ve held their last four opponents (Chargers, Saints, Redskins, and Eagles) to a combined 37 points. That’s pretty damn impressive. In fact, the Eagles have now scored a grand total of 16 points in TWO games against Dallas this season. If the Eagles continue to be a one-dimensional offense, that just continues to make this easier on the Dallas D. It was also clear last week that DeSean Jackson’s groin injury has him at less than 100%.

The Dallas offense is very balanced with several weapons. Tony Romo, Miles Austin, and Jason Witten are very much in synch in the passing game. Speedy Felix Jones is a deadly weapon in the running and passing games. And Marion Barber can plow for yardage and wear a defense down late in the game. That balance keeps the Eagles defense guessing. Yes, the Eagles will blitz and blitz A LOT. But Romo is a much better decision-maker this season and has done MUCH better protecting the football. The Cowboys offensive line is one of the best in the league and they should get right tackle Marc Colombo back tonight.

Bottom line: Forget the garbage about not being able to beat a team three times in the same season. Forget about the Eagles looking for revenge after last week’s shutout loss. The fact is that Dallas owns the edges in the trenches, and that goes a long way in deciding any football game. That’s why Dallas has two wins over Philly this season and it’s why they’ll do it again tonight. The Cowboys still have plenty of motivation, as they look to end a 14-year drought without a playoff win. Romo and the ‘Boys will get that monkey off their backs tonight. Take Dallas.

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NFL Football Pick 1-3-2010

My NFL pick for 1-3-2010 is:

(323) Green Bay Packers at (324) Arizona Cardinals – 4:15 p.m. ET

NFL Game of the Week: UNDER 44

Not much needs to be said here. Bottom line: Both teams already have a playoff spot clinched, so you should see many starters rested and many starters play just a half. If the Vikings win their 1 p.m. ET home game against the Giants, which they should, then Arizona and Green Bay would meet in the playoffs next week. So with that likelihood, you can also expect a very vanilla gameplan from both sides. The goal of this game will be to keep key guys healthy. The “sharps” steamed the Under earlier in the week, but the public has bet this back up to 44. You may even be able to get 44.5 if you wait until closer to kickoff. Take the UNDER.

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NFL Monday Night Football Pick 12-28-09

My NFL Monday Night Football Pick for 12-28-09 is:

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears – 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN

Bet: #132 Chicago Bears +8

 Do I think the Bears are the better team? Of course not, but if the better team always won and covered the spread, the books would be out of business. We just saw the 2-12 Buccaneers go into New Orleans as 14-point dogs and upset the 13-1 Saints, so anything is possible. Anytime we have a divisional home dog getting more than a TD on Monday night, we have to take a good look at that home dog. The value definitely lies with the Bears. When these two teams met in Minnesota just a few weeks ago, the Vikings were a 10-point home favorite. Allowing three points for home field advantage, it would figure that the Bears would be a four-point dog tonight. But instead, we’re getting more than a TD with Chicago. That’s A LOT of value to ignore, especially for a team playing at home with same-season revenge against a division rival on a Monday night.

Brett Favre led the Vikings to a 10-1 start by throwing 24 touchdowns and three interceptions, but the 40-year-old has had three TDs and four interceptions in the three games since. That dropoff is eerily similar to his final five games with the New York Jets last season. Favre helped that team open 8-3, but the Jets missed the playoffs by dropping four of their final five as he totaled nine interceptions and two TDs. Minnesota played their first game in wintry conditions last Sunday night and Carolina easily handled them, 26-7. The wind will be a lot stronger and the temperature a lot colder tonight in Chicago. And I have to believe that, although they have no shot at the playoffs, the Bears will be plenty motivated to: 1) avenge that 36-10 loss at Minnesota from a few weeks ago; and 2) keep the Vikings from earning a first-round bye or possibly even home-field advantage. The value clearly lies with the Bears tonight. Grab the points with Chicago.

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