NFL Playoff Pick 1-17-10

My NFL playoff pick for 1-17-10 is:

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings – 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX

Bet: UNDER 45.5

This line opened at 48 and was immediately bet down. It’s obvious where the “smart money” is on this total, and I happen to agree. Many people will look at how explosive these two offenses can be, with names like Tony Romo, Miles Austin, Felix Jones, Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice, etc. But it’s defense that usually wins these playoff games and we have two pretty good ones going today.

The Cowboys defense has to be the hottest defense in the league right now. They held the potent Eagles offense to 14 points in those recent back-to-back meetings, and one of those TDs came in “garbage time.” They also went into the Superdome and held the Saints’ explosive offense to just 17 points. In fact, Dallas has held NINE of their last 11 opponents to 17 points or less. Yes, Minnesota has scored a ton of points at home, but most of that has come against some pretty poor defenses (Detroit, Seattle, Chicago, Giants). Dallas can stop the run with NT Jay Ratliff plugging up the middle. And the Dallas pass defense has been destroying people in large part due to a fierce pass rush led by DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer, etc.

The Vikings defense is well-known for stopping the run, but pass D has been an issue. That alone has many people on the Over here. And while Dallas’ offensive line is one of the best, they are also prone to false start penalties. That could be a huge problem in what will be a VERY loud Metrodome. Remember, Dallas LT Flozell Adams has always had a hearing problem, and that could come into play here. I expect plenty of false start penalties on the Dallas o-line, and those are drive killers. That’ll put Dallas in long-yardage situations and allow Jared Allen & company to put the heat on Romo. Minny’s D has held their last five home opponents to 10 points or less, so the D definitely feeds off the home crowd.

The only reason that crowd noise didn’t come into play when Dallas visited the Superdome is because Dallas scored a quick TD to get up 7-0. They then went up 14-0 and took the crowd completely out of the game. If they don’t do the same here, the crowd will be in it from the get-go and it will affect the Dallas offense.

Bottom line: These two defenses get overlooked by many because the offenses have been so good, and the public likes to play Over the total. But these two defenses have been extremely tough. Dallas’ D has been rolling for months and they’ve taken it up a notch in recent weeks. And the Vikings’ D has been very tough at home with the crowd behind them. I expect a final in the 37-41 total point range. And at this number, we have the key numbers of 43, 44, and 45 covered. Go UNDER.

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NFL Playoff Pick 1-16-10

My NFL playoff pick for 1-16-10 is:

Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints – 4:30 p.m. ET on FOX

Bet: #110 New Orleans Saints -6.5 (-115)

 Note: I waited as long as I possibly could because I thought the public action on Arizona would give us -6.5 -110. That hasn’t happened, so buy the half-point down to -6.5 if you can.

The public is all over Arizona after watching them put up 51 points in beating the Packers last weekend. The public had Green Bay in that game, so they are now swayed into liking Arizona. But that game was in the desert. Now the Cardinals have to visit the Superdome, which figures to be ear drum-splitting loud for this game. Something else that gets overlooked is the fact that Arizona’s defense gave up 45 points to Aaron Rodgers and company. So you can bet Drew Brees and that Saints passing game will also carve up that Arizona D.

No team needed the bye week like the Saints. Not only have they had two weeks to prepare for this one while ‘Zona is coming in off a short week (played late Sunday night), but they needed to get some guys healthy. The Saints D was playing well before injuries started taking their toll, especially in the secondary. But they got healthy with the time off, which should show dividends today.

Bottom line: Both teams can sling it with top QBs, but I think the Saints D gives them an edge. Arizona’s D is in disarray, as is evident by last weekend’s showing. And being home in the dome will be a HUGE plus for the Saints. The extra rest and prep time will also be a huge edge for the Saints. Take New Orleans.

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NFL Football Playoff Pick 1-10-10

My NFL playoff pick for 1-10-10 is:

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals – 4:40 p.m. ET on FOX

Bet: Arizona Cardinals +3

 NOTE: If your book has Arizona +2.5, then buy the half-point up to +3. And if by some chance Arizona is +3, buy the half-point up to +3.5.

This reminds me so much of last night’s Eagles-Cowboys game. Seemed like the world was on the Eagles because they couldn’t possibly lose two weeks in a row to Dallas. We had the right side in that game & I feel we have the right side in this one as well. The public saw both rematches yesterday end the same way as the Week 17 games. So public perception is that the Packers will complete the trifecta and once again beat the Cardinals. I disagree, and here’s why.

That game last week meant absolutely nothing to Arizona. They saw Minnesota win & lock up the #2 seed, so coach Whisenhunt only kept his starting defense in for one series, and Kurt Warner threw just six passes before exiting. On the flip side, Packers coach Mike McCarthy chose to keep his starters in for a majority of the game. So having a lopsided result is not at all surprising. And that lopsided result gives us great value today. The Cardinals opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but the Packers are now the 2.5-point favorite.

With Anquan Boldin not likely to play, even more people will line up to back the Pack. But Arizona has so many weapons to go with Larry Fitzgerald, such as Steve Breaston and Early Doucet in the passing game, and Beanie Wells has been a beast running the football. Kurt Warner is so good at getting rid of the football before the pressure gets to him, and he’s very good at seeing where the blitz is coming from and hitting his hot read. Not taking anything away from Aaron Rodgers, who had a great season. But this is playoff football and he’s making his first start. He did not really see the Arizona pass rush last week because they only played one series, but he’ll get to know them really well today. And that Packers o-line has been known to give up sacks in bunches.

The Cardinals have the playoff experience, and they love being the underdog. They’ve covered NINE straight as a dog. Arizona may not have been great at home this season, but they did hammer the Vikings just a few weeks ago. And while the Packers have been on quite a roll, it should be noted that they do NOT own a quality road win this season. Throw out last week’s win over the Cardinals’ B-team, and the Packers’ road wins this season came against the Rams, Browns, Lions, and Bears.

And if this game comes down to a FG, I’ll take Neil Rackers over Mason Crosby, who has been very shaky this season.

Bottom line: While the public is enamored with Green Bay, the value lies with the home team with the playoff experience who likes to be the dog. The Pack won’t get the luxury of playing against backups this week, and their lack of true road success and playoff experience will show in the end. Take Arizona.

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NFL Football Pick 1-9-2010

My NFL pick for 1-9-2010 is:

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys – 8:00 p.m. ET on NBC

Bet: Dallas Cowboys -3.5

 NOTE: I recommend waiting as long as you can to bet this. If the line stays at -3.5, then buy the half-point down to -3. And if the line moves to -3, then buy the half-point down to -2.5.

Seems like everybody and their brother is on the Eagles tonight. This game has public perception written all over it. The public perception is that the Cowboys will not be able to beat the Eagles two weeks in a row, or three straight times in the same season. But let’s just look at the facts.

There have been 19 instances where a team has met a division rival in the playoffs with a chance to beat them for the third straight time that season. Despite the public perception that it’s difficult to complete the “three-peat,” teams in this role have won 12 of those 19 meetings (63%). But that’s just the beginning. While I don’t expect another blowout, I expect the end result to be the same. Here’s why.

Games are won and lost in the trenches, and I see Dallas as having the edge along both lines. The Eagles have problems along their offensive line, and that was evident last week against these Cowboys. Right guard Nick Cole had to move over and play center in place of the injured Jamaal Jackson. The Cowboys pass rush is playing at peak performance right now, and the defense as a whole is peaking at just the right time. They’ ve held their last four opponents (Chargers, Saints, Redskins, and Eagles) to a combined 37 points. That’s pretty damn impressive. In fact, the Eagles have now scored a grand total of 16 points in TWO games against Dallas this season. If the Eagles continue to be a one-dimensional offense, that just continues to make this easier on the Dallas D. It was also clear last week that DeSean Jackson’s groin injury has him at less than 100%.

The Dallas offense is very balanced with several weapons. Tony Romo, Miles Austin, and Jason Witten are very much in synch in the passing game. Speedy Felix Jones is a deadly weapon in the running and passing games. And Marion Barber can plow for yardage and wear a defense down late in the game. That balance keeps the Eagles defense guessing. Yes, the Eagles will blitz and blitz A LOT. But Romo is a much better decision-maker this season and has done MUCH better protecting the football. The Cowboys offensive line is one of the best in the league and they should get right tackle Marc Colombo back tonight.

Bottom line: Forget the garbage about not being able to beat a team three times in the same season. Forget about the Eagles looking for revenge after last week’s shutout loss. The fact is that Dallas owns the edges in the trenches, and that goes a long way in deciding any football game. That’s why Dallas has two wins over Philly this season and it’s why they’ll do it again tonight. The Cowboys still have plenty of motivation, as they look to end a 14-year drought without a playoff win. Romo and the ‘Boys will get that monkey off their backs tonight. Take Dallas.

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NFL Football Pick 1-3-2010

My NFL pick for 1-3-2010 is:

(323) Green Bay Packers at (324) Arizona Cardinals – 4:15 p.m. ET

NFL Game of the Week: UNDER 44

Not much needs to be said here. Bottom line: Both teams already have a playoff spot clinched, so you should see many starters rested and many starters play just a half. If the Vikings win their 1 p.m. ET home game against the Giants, which they should, then Arizona and Green Bay would meet in the playoffs next week. So with that likelihood, you can also expect a very vanilla gameplan from both sides. The goal of this game will be to keep key guys healthy. The “sharps” steamed the Under earlier in the week, but the public has bet this back up to 44. You may even be able to get 44.5 if you wait until closer to kickoff. Take the UNDER.

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