NBA Playoff Pick 5-10-10
May 10, 2010 by Dwayne Bryant · Leave a Comment
My NBA playoff pick for 5-10-10 is:
Los Angeles Lakers at Utah Jazz – 10:35 p.m. ET
Bet #731-732 UNDER 207
We got burned with this same wager in Game 3, but there is MUCH more value on this UNDER play with this Game 4 line thanks to Game 3′s result. The posted total for Game 3 was anywhere from 202 to 203 and the final score ended up 111-110 or 18 to 19 points over the posted total. As a result, the Game 4 posted total is currently at 207, which gives us GREAT value on the UNDER tonight, in my opinion.
Looking into Game 3, a couple things blow my mind. First, there were a ridiculous 51 3-point attempts, of which 45% were made. There have been an average of 39.6 3-point attempts taken in Lakers road games this season and just 34.4 in Utah home games. Not only that, but the Lakers made 33.4% of their 3-point attempts on the road while the Jazz made 38.3% at home. So not only did they combine to take an abnormal amount of 3-point attempts in Game 3, but they also MADE a much-better-than-average number of those attempts. I simply cannot see a repeat performance of that (both attempts and success rate) tonight.
As a comparison, these two met in Utah twice during the regular season. Both games had posted totals of around 202.5 to 203 and both games went UNDER. In the game on 2/10 (a 96-81 Lakers win), the teams combined to attempt just 26 threes and made just 27% of those attempts. In the game on 12/12 (a 102-94 Jazz win), they combined to attempt 39 threes and made just 25.6% of those attempts.
Another thing that stands out to me is the free-throw shooting from Game 3. They combined to hit 42 of 50 attempts for 84%. The Lakers shot 74.4% from the charity stripe on the road and Utah shot 72.9% at home. In the two regular season games in Utah this season, they combined for 65.3% and 76.2% free-throw shooting. Simply put, they shot well above average from the free-throw line in Game 3.
Bottom line: The Lakers and Jazz shot well above their season averages at the free-throw line and from 3-point range. They also took a ridiculous amount of 3-point shots; well above their combined season average. I simply cannot see any of this happening again tonight and that Game 3 anomaly gives us what I feel is GREAT value tonight, especially considering this line is 4 to 5 points higher than it was for Game 3. Grab the UNDER in this one.
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NBA Playoff Pick 5-8-10
May 8, 2010 by Dwayne Bryant · Leave a Comment
My NBA playoff pick for 5-8-10 is:
Los Angeles Lakers at Utah Jazz – 8:05 p.m. ET
Bet #723-724 UNDER 202.5
These two had played to 7 straight UNDERS leading up to the start of this series. With totals of 198.5, both games at the Staples Center went Over. Now the series heads to Salt Lake City with an opening total of 203.5. That was quickly bet down to as low as 202 at some shops. These two squared off in Utah twice during the regular season and both games had a posted total in the 202.5 – 203 range. Both games went UNDER with final scores totaling 196 and 177. And it’s not like they shot bad, posting 49% shooting and 45.4% shooting, respectively.
A similar situation occured in last year’s playoffs. The Lakers faced the Jazz and took the first two games at home. The series shifted to Utah with the Jazz down 2-0 and a total of 213.5 was posted for Game 3. Utah, desperately in need of a win, clamped down on defense and held the Lakers to 36.8% shooting in an 88-86 victory (174 total points, 39.5 points UNDER the posted total). I don’t know if Utah can hold LA to 37% shooting again (LA shot a combined 46.5% in the two meetings in Utah this season, but both games still stayed UNDER tonight’s number), but I do expect an emphasis on defense tonight.
UNDER Trends: 4-0 in the Lakers’ last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest; 12-4 in the Lakers’ last 16 games as a road underdog; 11-4 in the Jazz’s last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record; 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Utah; 7-2 in the last 9 meetings overall.
Bottom line: I’m a big believer in that (recent) history is a great indicator of future results. Teams fall into patterns in certain situations and I love when teams fall into distinct patterns when they play each other. Such is the case tonight. Grab the UNDER in this Lakers-Jazz matchup tonight.
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NBA Playoff Pick 5-7-10
May 7, 2010 by Dwayne Bryant · Leave a Comment
My NBA playoff pick for 5-7-10 is:
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics – 7:05 p.m. ET on ESPN
Bet #717 Cleveland Cavaliers -1
Some teams just step up after a loss. Cleveland is one of those teams. If you throw out the last few games of the regular season (when the Cavs already had the #1 seed locked up), Cleveland only lost back-to-back games THREE times all season, including the playoffs. And one of those three instances occured in the first two games of the season. Suffice it to say that Cleveland knows how to bounce back from defeat.
But Cleveland wasn’t just defeated in their last game; they were completely embarrassed on their home floor by these Celtics, 104-86. Cleveland’s past performance suggests we can expect a bounce-back by King James & company tonight. The Cavs are 23-7 ATS in their last 30 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home.
These teams have had three days to rest up and get ready for yet another physical game. If you read game previews and listen to sports talk on TV or radio, then you hear about how much both teams needed these three days off and how it will help both teams. But truth be told, only one of these teams performs well when coming off a long layoff. The Cavaliers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Conversely, the Celtics are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Looks like the time off may help both teams heal, but it’s clearly the Cavs who play better in this situation.
Bottom line: The Cavaliers are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Boston. Cleveland is coming off a game in which they were embarrassed on their home court and have now lost the home court advantage in this series. The Cavs play much better than Boston on a 3 or more day layoff, and they’ve shown a penchant for bouncing back off a loss. LeBron will be on a major mission tonight and that mission is to take back the home court advantage and regain control of this series. Past history tells me it’s not too wise to bet against the Cavs in this situation. I’ll take Cleveland tonight.
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NBA Playoff Pick 5-5-10
May 5, 2010 by Dwayne Bryant · Leave a Comment
My NBA playoff pick for 5-5-10 is:
San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns – 9:05 p.m. ET
Bet #713 San Antonio Spurs +2.5
This reminds me of the Spurs’ first-round series with Dallas. The Spurs dropped Game One to the Mavs as a 4-point dog, yet the line dropped to Mavs -3 for Game Two. The Spurs went on to take Game Two in Dallas and eventually the series as well. Second verse same as the first… San Antonio dropped Game One of this series in Phoenix as a 4-point dog. The Game Two line opened at Suns -3.5 and quickly dropped to -2.5 despite a majority of the reported bets being on Phoenix. The “sharps” obviously see a repeat of the way the Spurs started that Dallas series, and I agree. Spurs coach Greg Popovich is one of the best and I expect he’ll make the necessary adjustments to even this series. Grab the points with San Antonio.
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NBA Playoff Pick & Baseball Pick 4-27-10
April 27, 2010 by Dwayne Bryant · Leave a Comment
I have two premium sports betting picks for 4-27-10. They are:
MLB – Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants – 10:15 p.m. ET
Bet #915 Philadelphia Phillies -112 (Moyer/Wellemeyer listed)
NBA – Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:35 p.m. ET
Bet UNDER 194
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