Super Bowl XLIV Pick 2-7-10

My Super Bowl XLIV pick for 2-7-10 is:

Super Bowl XLIV – New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts – 6:25 p.m. ET on CBS

Bet: UNDER 57

NOTE: I recommend waiting to make this bet, as I expect the public to drive this line even higher as we get closer to kickoff.

NOTE #2: Remember, the Super Bowl is just ONE game. I always recommend betting the same amount on each play and this game is no different. Please keep that in mind as you place your wagers for this one.

 

ANALYSIS: I studied this game for days and from every conceivable angle. I would’ve preferred to have played a side, but I can see this game ending too many ways. It’s my opinion that the best value play on this game is on the UNDER.

It’s easy to see why the public likes the Over. We have two pass-happy teams led by two of the best QBs in the game today — Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. And we’ve seen some pretty high-scoring games lately, which definitely influences the public. We saw Arizona and Green Bay combine for 96 points. We also saw Arizona and New Orleans combine for 59 points. And we saw Minnesota and New Orleans combine for 59 points. So this line is inflated due to public perception.

This is essentially a road game for both teams, so I like to look at how these teams performed on the road this season. Saints road games averaged a total of 53 points, while Colts road games averaged a total of just 47 points. Both defenses did their part on the road, as the Saints allowed 21 points per game, while the Colts allowed just 19 points per game.

Despite having offenses that are very well-known for their passing prowess, I expect to see plenty of each team’s running game. And with a total this high, we only need a couple drives to end with a FG to keep this Under the total. Surprisingly, the Colts have had quite a few drives end in FGs this season, and I look for that to continue. And the Colts have been more of a drive-oriented offense than a quick-strike offense this season. I also expect the Colts speedy defense to step up, avoid giving up the big play, and make the Saints earn every point.

Bottom line: I think this game starts slowly, as each team tries to shake off the nerves and get a feel for what the other side will try to do. Like I said, it’s only going to take a couple of drives ending in FGs (or better yet, missed FGs) for this game to stay Under the total.

The first quarter will go a long way in determining where this total ends up. 14 points or more in the first quarter and I think we’re in trouble. But like I said, I expect a slow start. I see this game ending with about 47 to 52 points, so take the UNDER.

PROP BETS (just small action for me to add to the excitement & enjoyment)

1. #126 No team 3 straight scores +150
2. #2041 A FG made under 24? yards +110
3. #2060 IND makes longest FG -115
4. #2119 Any punt results in a touchback -130
5. #2143 NOR longest punt return -110

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NFL Football Pick 1-24-10

My NFL football pick for 1-24-10 is:

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints – 6:40 p.m. ET on FOX

Bet: #304 New Orleans Saints -3.5

 NOTE: Buy the half-point down to -3. If you wait and can get -3, buy the half-point down to -2.5.

The last thing most people remember from last weekend’s playoff action is the Vikings absolutely pounding the Cowboys (34-3), who were the hottest team in the NFC at the time. Minnesota also pummeled Tony Romo in that game, so Minny’s pass rush really stood out. As a result, many people will line up to grab the points with Brett Favre and the Vikings. I disagree.

One big difference between the Vikings-Dallas game and this one is that the Vikes are now on the road. As much as the crowd noise helped them in the Metrodome last weekend, that same ear-splitting noise will be their enemy today in the Superdome. The Vikings were just 4-4 on the road this season, and those four wins came against Cleveland, Detroit, St. Louis, and Green Bay (who they know well). Their only road game against a playoff team who they do not know well was in Arizona, and the Cardinals pounded the Vikings, 30-17 (and the game wasn’t even that close).

The Cowboys made the Vikings pass rush look unworldly, especially after LT Flozell Adams left the game with an injury. The Williams boys and Ray Edwards will all play, but none of them are 100%. And one big difference that we should see in this one is the difference between Tony Romo and Drew Brees. Romo is much more likely to hold the ball and scramble around trying to make a play. Brees, however, has one of the quickest releases in the league and he’s excellent at finding the opening receiver before the pass rush can get to him.

Dallas had open receivers running all over the field last weekend, but Romo had no time to find them. The Saints line is intact and should give Brees enough time to get the job done. And I KNOW Saints head coach Sean Payton will do a MUCH better job than Dallas offensive coordinator Jason Garrett at making any necessary adjustments should that Vikings pass rush start to roll.

Bottom line: The public is making too much of last week’s Vikings win over Dallas. Minnesota is a mediocre road team, and the Superdome noise certainly won’t help. The Saints defense is as healthy as it’s been since early in the season, and I expect Brees and company to exploit the Minnesota secondary. Take New Orleans.

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NFL Playoff Pick 1-17-10

My NFL playoff pick for 1-17-10 is:

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings – 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX

Bet: UNDER 45.5

This line opened at 48 and was immediately bet down. It’s obvious where the “smart money” is on this total, and I happen to agree. Many people will look at how explosive these two offenses can be, with names like Tony Romo, Miles Austin, Felix Jones, Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice, etc. But it’s defense that usually wins these playoff games and we have two pretty good ones going today.

The Cowboys defense has to be the hottest defense in the league right now. They held the potent Eagles offense to 14 points in those recent back-to-back meetings, and one of those TDs came in “garbage time.” They also went into the Superdome and held the Saints’ explosive offense to just 17 points. In fact, Dallas has held NINE of their last 11 opponents to 17 points or less. Yes, Minnesota has scored a ton of points at home, but most of that has come against some pretty poor defenses (Detroit, Seattle, Chicago, Giants). Dallas can stop the run with NT Jay Ratliff plugging up the middle. And the Dallas pass defense has been destroying people in large part due to a fierce pass rush led by DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer, etc.

The Vikings defense is well-known for stopping the run, but pass D has been an issue. That alone has many people on the Over here. And while Dallas’ offensive line is one of the best, they are also prone to false start penalties. That could be a huge problem in what will be a VERY loud Metrodome. Remember, Dallas LT Flozell Adams has always had a hearing problem, and that could come into play here. I expect plenty of false start penalties on the Dallas o-line, and those are drive killers. That’ll put Dallas in long-yardage situations and allow Jared Allen & company to put the heat on Romo. Minny’s D has held their last five home opponents to 10 points or less, so the D definitely feeds off the home crowd.

The only reason that crowd noise didn’t come into play when Dallas visited the Superdome is because Dallas scored a quick TD to get up 7-0. They then went up 14-0 and took the crowd completely out of the game. If they don’t do the same here, the crowd will be in it from the get-go and it will affect the Dallas offense.

Bottom line: These two defenses get overlooked by many because the offenses have been so good, and the public likes to play Over the total. But these two defenses have been extremely tough. Dallas’ D has been rolling for months and they’ve taken it up a notch in recent weeks. And the Vikings’ D has been very tough at home with the crowd behind them. I expect a final in the 37-41 total point range. And at this number, we have the key numbers of 43, 44, and 45 covered. Go UNDER.

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NFL Playoff Pick 1-16-10

My NFL playoff pick for 1-16-10 is:

Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints – 4:30 p.m. ET on FOX

Bet: #110 New Orleans Saints -6.5 (-115)

 Note: I waited as long as I possibly could because I thought the public action on Arizona would give us -6.5 -110. That hasn’t happened, so buy the half-point down to -6.5 if you can.

The public is all over Arizona after watching them put up 51 points in beating the Packers last weekend. The public had Green Bay in that game, so they are now swayed into liking Arizona. But that game was in the desert. Now the Cardinals have to visit the Superdome, which figures to be ear drum-splitting loud for this game. Something else that gets overlooked is the fact that Arizona’s defense gave up 45 points to Aaron Rodgers and company. So you can bet Drew Brees and that Saints passing game will also carve up that Arizona D.

No team needed the bye week like the Saints. Not only have they had two weeks to prepare for this one while ‘Zona is coming in off a short week (played late Sunday night), but they needed to get some guys healthy. The Saints D was playing well before injuries started taking their toll, especially in the secondary. But they got healthy with the time off, which should show dividends today.

Bottom line: Both teams can sling it with top QBs, but I think the Saints D gives them an edge. Arizona’s D is in disarray, as is evident by last weekend’s showing. And being home in the dome will be a HUGE plus for the Saints. The extra rest and prep time will also be a huge edge for the Saints. Take New Orleans.

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NFL Football Playoff Pick 1-10-10

My NFL playoff pick for 1-10-10 is:

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals – 4:40 p.m. ET on FOX

Bet: Arizona Cardinals +3

 NOTE: If your book has Arizona +2.5, then buy the half-point up to +3. And if by some chance Arizona is +3, buy the half-point up to +3.5.

This reminds me so much of last night’s Eagles-Cowboys game. Seemed like the world was on the Eagles because they couldn’t possibly lose two weeks in a row to Dallas. We had the right side in that game & I feel we have the right side in this one as well. The public saw both rematches yesterday end the same way as the Week 17 games. So public perception is that the Packers will complete the trifecta and once again beat the Cardinals. I disagree, and here’s why.

That game last week meant absolutely nothing to Arizona. They saw Minnesota win & lock up the #2 seed, so coach Whisenhunt only kept his starting defense in for one series, and Kurt Warner threw just six passes before exiting. On the flip side, Packers coach Mike McCarthy chose to keep his starters in for a majority of the game. So having a lopsided result is not at all surprising. And that lopsided result gives us great value today. The Cardinals opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but the Packers are now the 2.5-point favorite.

With Anquan Boldin not likely to play, even more people will line up to back the Pack. But Arizona has so many weapons to go with Larry Fitzgerald, such as Steve Breaston and Early Doucet in the passing game, and Beanie Wells has been a beast running the football. Kurt Warner is so good at getting rid of the football before the pressure gets to him, and he’s very good at seeing where the blitz is coming from and hitting his hot read. Not taking anything away from Aaron Rodgers, who had a great season. But this is playoff football and he’s making his first start. He did not really see the Arizona pass rush last week because they only played one series, but he’ll get to know them really well today. And that Packers o-line has been known to give up sacks in bunches.

The Cardinals have the playoff experience, and they love being the underdog. They’ve covered NINE straight as a dog. Arizona may not have been great at home this season, but they did hammer the Vikings just a few weeks ago. And while the Packers have been on quite a roll, it should be noted that they do NOT own a quality road win this season. Throw out last week’s win over the Cardinals’ B-team, and the Packers’ road wins this season came against the Rams, Browns, Lions, and Bears.

And if this game comes down to a FG, I’ll take Neil Rackers over Mason Crosby, who has been very shaky this season.

Bottom line: While the public is enamored with Green Bay, the value lies with the home team with the playoff experience who likes to be the dog. The Pack won’t get the luxury of playing against backups this week, and their lack of true road success and playoff experience will show in the end. Take Arizona.

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