NFL Football Pick 1-9-2010

My NFL pick for 1-9-2010 is:

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys – 8:00 p.m. ET on NBC

Bet: Dallas Cowboys -3.5

 NOTE: I recommend waiting as long as you can to bet this. If the line stays at -3.5, then buy the half-point down to -3. And if the line moves to -3, then buy the half-point down to -2.5.

Seems like everybody and their brother is on the Eagles tonight. This game has public perception written all over it. The public perception is that the Cowboys will not be able to beat the Eagles two weeks in a row, or three straight times in the same season. But let’s just look at the facts.

There have been 19 instances where a team has met a division rival in the playoffs with a chance to beat them for the third straight time that season. Despite the public perception that it’s difficult to complete the “three-peat,” teams in this role have won 12 of those 19 meetings (63%). But that’s just the beginning. While I don’t expect another blowout, I expect the end result to be the same. Here’s why.

Games are won and lost in the trenches, and I see Dallas as having the edge along both lines. The Eagles have problems along their offensive line, and that was evident last week against these Cowboys. Right guard Nick Cole had to move over and play center in place of the injured Jamaal Jackson. The Cowboys pass rush is playing at peak performance right now, and the defense as a whole is peaking at just the right time. They’ ve held their last four opponents (Chargers, Saints, Redskins, and Eagles) to a combined 37 points. That’s pretty damn impressive. In fact, the Eagles have now scored a grand total of 16 points in TWO games against Dallas this season. If the Eagles continue to be a one-dimensional offense, that just continues to make this easier on the Dallas D. It was also clear last week that DeSean Jackson’s groin injury has him at less than 100%.

The Dallas offense is very balanced with several weapons. Tony Romo, Miles Austin, and Jason Witten are very much in synch in the passing game. Speedy Felix Jones is a deadly weapon in the running and passing games. And Marion Barber can plow for yardage and wear a defense down late in the game. That balance keeps the Eagles defense guessing. Yes, the Eagles will blitz and blitz A LOT. But Romo is a much better decision-maker this season and has done MUCH better protecting the football. The Cowboys offensive line is one of the best in the league and they should get right tackle Marc Colombo back tonight.

Bottom line: Forget the garbage about not being able to beat a team three times in the same season. Forget about the Eagles looking for revenge after last week’s shutout loss. The fact is that Dallas owns the edges in the trenches, and that goes a long way in deciding any football game. That’s why Dallas has two wins over Philly this season and it’s why they’ll do it again tonight. The Cowboys still have plenty of motivation, as they look to end a 14-year drought without a playoff win. Romo and the ‘Boys will get that monkey off their backs tonight. Take Dallas.

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NFL Football Pick 1-3-2010

My NFL pick for 1-3-2010 is:

(323) Green Bay Packers at (324) Arizona Cardinals – 4:15 p.m. ET

NFL Game of the Week: UNDER 44

Not much needs to be said here. Bottom line: Both teams already have a playoff spot clinched, so you should see many starters rested and many starters play just a half. If the Vikings win their 1 p.m. ET home game against the Giants, which they should, then Arizona and Green Bay would meet in the playoffs next week. So with that likelihood, you can also expect a very vanilla gameplan from both sides. The goal of this game will be to keep key guys healthy. The “sharps” steamed the Under earlier in the week, but the public has bet this back up to 44. You may even be able to get 44.5 if you wait until closer to kickoff. Take the UNDER.

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NFL Monday Night Football Pick 12-28-09

My NFL Monday Night Football Pick for 12-28-09 is:

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears – 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN

Bet: #132 Chicago Bears +8

 Do I think the Bears are the better team? Of course not, but if the better team always won and covered the spread, the books would be out of business. We just saw the 2-12 Buccaneers go into New Orleans as 14-point dogs and upset the 13-1 Saints, so anything is possible. Anytime we have a divisional home dog getting more than a TD on Monday night, we have to take a good look at that home dog. The value definitely lies with the Bears. When these two teams met in Minnesota just a few weeks ago, the Vikings were a 10-point home favorite. Allowing three points for home field advantage, it would figure that the Bears would be a four-point dog tonight. But instead, we’re getting more than a TD with Chicago. That’s A LOT of value to ignore, especially for a team playing at home with same-season revenge against a division rival on a Monday night.

Brett Favre led the Vikings to a 10-1 start by throwing 24 touchdowns and three interceptions, but the 40-year-old has had three TDs and four interceptions in the three games since. That dropoff is eerily similar to his final five games with the New York Jets last season. Favre helped that team open 8-3, but the Jets missed the playoffs by dropping four of their final five as he totaled nine interceptions and two TDs. Minnesota played their first game in wintry conditions last Sunday night and Carolina easily handled them, 26-7. The wind will be a lot stronger and the temperature a lot colder tonight in Chicago. And I have to believe that, although they have no shot at the playoffs, the Bears will be plenty motivated to: 1) avenge that 36-10 loss at Minnesota from a few weeks ago; and 2) keep the Vikings from earning a first-round bye or possibly even home-field advantage. The value clearly lies with the Bears tonight. Grab the points with Chicago.

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NFL Football Pick 12-27-09

I only have one NFL pick today. It’s my NFL Game of the Week:

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins – 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC

Bet: #130 Washington Redskins +7

 Everybody saw Dallas hand the Saints their first loss, and on their home field no less. All of a sudden, Dallas’ December woes are forgotten. Everyone also saw Washington get pummeled by the Giants on their home field Monday night, 45-12. That is why I love how this game sets up.

Coming off that HUGE win, this is exactly the kind of game in which Dallas almost always comes out and lays an egg. Wade Phillips just is NOT a motivator, and that is what is needed to keep his team focused off that huge win. Dallas had one other HUGE emotional win this year. That was when they went to Philly and beat the Eagles 20-16, which avenged their 44-6 loss in Philly in Week 17 last season that kept Dallas out of the playoffs. So how did they respond off that big win? They went to Green Bay and got beat by a more motivated Packers team, 17-7. The Redskins will definitely be motivated to erase that home embarrassment from Monday night. They usually play Dallas tough, and lost by just a point at Dallas earlier this season.

The Redskins do play hard for Jim Zorn. The Monday night game got away from them, and they were playing a hungry opponent fighting for their playoff lives. This time they’re playing what should be a flat Dallas team & they’ll make sure this one does not get out of hand. Wait as long as you can to bet this AND buy the hook to +7.5 if it doesn’t get there on its own. Take Washington as my NFL Game of the Week.

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NFL Pick 12-20-09

My NFL pick for 12-20-09 is:

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers – 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC

NFL Game of the Week: UNDER 43.5

Carolina just does not score many points. They’ve gone under in six of their last eight games, and they’ve averaged just 12.25 points over their last four games. They have no passing game whatsoever and it doesn’t matter who is under center. Their strength is the running game, but Minnesota’s defensive strength is stopping the run. That Williams Wall is very tough. And the Carolina passing game has no chance with Jared Allen providing pressure and Antoine Winfield back to bolster the secondary. The Vikings have played Under in five straight games, allowing just 13.8 points per game in that stretch. I can’t see Carolina getting more than 13 on them in this one.

Minnesota will rely on their running game with stud RB Adrian Peterson. Carolina’s run defense is poor, so the Vikings will just keep pounding away and that keeps the clock moving. Brett Favre and the Minnesota passing game are much more effective in the climate-controlled dome. No need to force things when the running game will work so well in what will be their first game this season in wintry conditions. I’m not a fan of laying a bunch of points on the NFL road, but the total looks to be a great play. Take the Under as my NFL Game of the Week play.

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