Super Bowl XLIV Pick 2-7-10

My Super Bowl XLIV pick for 2-7-10 is:

Super Bowl XLIV – New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts – 6:25 p.m. ET on CBS

Bet: UNDER 57

NOTE: I recommend waiting to make this bet, as I expect the public to drive this line even higher as we get closer to kickoff.

NOTE #2: Remember, the Super Bowl is just ONE game. I always recommend betting the same amount on each play and this game is no different. Please keep that in mind as you place your wagers for this one.

ANALYSIS: I studied this game for days and from every conceivable angle. I would’ve preferred to have played a side, but I can see this game ending too many ways. It’s my opinion that the best value play on this game is on the UNDER.

It’s easy to see why the public likes the Over. We have two pass-happy teams led by two of the best QBs in the game today — Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. And we’ve seen some pretty high-scoring games lately, which definitely influences the public. We saw Arizona and Green Bay combine for 96 points. We also saw Arizona and New Orleans combine for 59 points. And we saw Minnesota and New Orleans combine for 59 points. So this line is inflated due to public perception.

This is essentially a road game for both teams, so I like to look at how these teams performed on the road this season. Saints road games averaged a total of 53 points, while Colts road games averaged a total of just 47 points. Both defenses did their part on the road, as the Saints allowed 21 points per game, while the Colts allowed just 19 points per game.

Despite having offenses that are very well-known for their passing prowess, I expect to see plenty of each team’s running game. And with a total this high, we only need a couple drives to end with a FG to keep this Under the total. Surprisingly, the Colts have had quite a few drives end in FGs this season, and I look for that to continue. And the Colts have been more of a drive-oriented offense than a quick-strike offense this season. I also expect the Colts speedy defense to step up, avoid giving up the big play, and make the Saints earn every point.

Bottom line: I think this game starts slowly, as each team tries to shake off the nerves and get a feel for what the other side will try to do. Like I said, it’s only going to take a couple of drives ending in FGs (or better yet, missed FGs) for this game to stay Under the total.

The first quarter will go a long way in determining where this total ends up. 14 points or more in the first quarter and I think we’re in trouble. But like I said, I expect a slow start. I see this game ending with about 47 to 52 points, so take the UNDER.

PROP BETS (just small action for me to add to the excitement & enjoyment)

1. #126 No team 3 straight scores +150
2. #2041 A FG made under 24? yards +110
3. #2060 IND makes longest FG -115
4. #2119 Any punt results in a touchback -130
5. #2143 NOR longest punt return -110

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